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XRP Price Historical Data Suggests Substantial Q4 Rally Possible
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XRP Price Historical Data Suggests Substantial Q4 Rally Possible

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
XRP price

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XRP price might have struggled to leave the $0.50 range over the last several months, even despite a victory in Ripple’s case with the SEC. 

But all that could change in Q4 2023, as the fourth quarter of the year is historically the most bullish for the altcoin.  With this in mind, let’s dig into the data and see how Q4 stacks up against the historical performance of other quarters of the year. Plus, we’ll pin-point precisely which month is by far the most bullish of them all. 

Q4 Performance Is The Best Historically For XRP Price

XRP price at the moment is trading at around $0.51 after a fierce rejection following Ripple’s big win in the case against the SEC. The altcoin was promptly relisted on top cryptocurrency exchanges, but it hasn’t led to the demand necessary to sustain higher prices. 

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But that could change soon, now that Q3 is over and Q4 is here. The cryptocurrency is coming out of its worst quarter on average, so lack of performance isn’t too surprising. Q4, however, according to historical averages in performance across all quarters, is by far the most substantial. 

XRP price quarterly returns

Q4 on average has provided an average of 30% ROI. Right behind it is Q2, posting roughly 22% ROI. Q1 averages a modest 13%, while Q3 comes in last with only 6% on average. There’s no guarantee this data will translate into returns during this last quarter of the year, but seasonality and serial correlation are common in finance and cryptocurrencies. 

Why It Could Take Til December For The Bull Run To Begin

Unfortunately, October isn’t the beginning of a massive bull run the previous text makes it sound. While the data doesn’t lie — XRP price performs the best historically in Q4 on average, but Q4 represents October through the end of December. 

On a month-by-month basis, October is actually the third worst month on average. If the same positive seasonality in XRP were to follow along the data’s projections accurately, then it would also suggest that October might be another month of pain and sideways for investors. 

XRP price monthly results

At an almost 12% gain in November on average compared to October’s 1.5% average decline, the second to last month of the year will turn things green. But even November isn’t quite the relief XRP holders would hope for.

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Bitcoin, XRP, & Ethereum: Three Top Coins On Brink Of Golden Cross

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That doesn’t arrive until December, which is by far and away the best month on average for XRP, with an 80% ROI on average. The one caveat, is that the majority of the returns occurred during the 2017 bull market, potentially skewing the results. Removing the outlier from the data would almost certainly change the results significantly.

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from Shutterstock, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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