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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Key Metrics Indicate Toncoin Accumulation Continues Despite Price Struggle

Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme
7 months ago
3 mins read
Key Metrics Indicate Toncoin Accumulation Continues Despite Price Struggle

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After a steady decline, Toncoin (TON) has seen a slight price increase over the past day, rising by 1.7% to $3.85. This movement comes amidst ongoing discussions about its longer-term performance and accumulation trends.

According to an analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley, there are indications that TON holders are positioning for a potential rebound.

Moodley’s observations, which are detailed in a recent post on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, suggest that the asset may be entering an accumulation phase despite its recent downward trajectory.

Related Reading

Analyst Says Toncoin (TON) May Be Primed for Major Recovery—Here’s Why

Analyst Says Toncoin (TON) May Be Primed for Major Recovery—Here’s Why

7 months ago

Toncoin Shows Signs of Accumulation

Moodley points to several metrics as evidence. The 180-day Sharpe Ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted returns, signals a period of accumulation. This is further supported by stable TVL (Total Value Locked) in lending protocols and a noticeable reduction in speculative trading activity.

Notably, the asset’s volatility has declined since the price spikes in December 2024 and February 2025. If this trend persists, it could imply that selling pressure is diminishing, potentially paving the way for a future rebound.

Key on-chain indicators also paint a picture of potential opportunity. The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), which evaluates TON’s valuation relative to historical moving averages, highlights accumulation at a price level of $3.82.

Toncoin (TON) Normalized Risk Metric (NRM)
Toncoin (TON) Normalized Risk Metric (NRM). | Source: CryptoQuant

Additionally, record lows in the Long-Term NRM suggest that longer-term holders are increasingly accumulating TON at these levels. Historically, similar setups have preceded market recoveries, giving investors a reason to believe that a medium-term price reversal may be on the horizon.

Moodley wrote:

It remains to be seen whether TON’s price action can stage a full recovery. However, long-term accumulation traders are best positioned to benefit from macro policy changes that could shift sentiment in the broader crypto market. The conditions could align for a potential rebound with selling pressure fading and risk metrics signalling a low-risk environment.

On-Chain Metrics Hint at Long-Term Opportunity

Another metric Moodley pointed out is the Risk Exposure Ratio—which tracks leveraged positions within TON’s DeFi ecosystem—it has recently reached a new high, exceeding 0.24 in early 2025. This suggests a growing influence of leveraged activity.

Toncoin (TON) Risk Exposure Ratio
Toncoin (TON) Risk Exposure Ratio. | Source: CryptoQuant

However, if the ratio begins to decline, it could indicate a stabilization in market conditions, potentially leading to more stable price movements.

Furthermore, the Probability of Spend metric shows that coins older than 400 days are unlikely to move, indicating strong conviction among long-term holders. This trend has historically correlated with phases of accumulation and recovery.

As Moodley notes, short- to medium-term holders appear to be exiting their positions, likely contributing to the recent price weakness. Meanwhile, long-term holders remain consistent, suggesting a belief in the asset’s long-term potential.

Related Reading

Toncoin

Toncoin (TON) Investors Sitting On 54% Profit Despite Price Plunge

7 months ago

If selling pressure continues to ease and risk metrics improve, TON could be setting the stage for a more favorable market environment. In this scenario, long-term investors may be well-positioned to benefit from potential macroeconomic shifts that could ultimately boost Toncoin’s value.

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView
TON price is moving sideways on the 2-hour chart. Source: TON/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme

Samuel Edyme

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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