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Solana Could Face A 41% Crash: Mechanism Capital Co-Founder
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Solana Could Face A 41% Crash, Warns Mechanism Capital Co-Founder

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
11 months ago
3 mins read
Solana price crash prediction

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Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, voiced concerns over the potential volatility and impending price correction of Solana (SOL) in a market analysis posted on X. His comments come amid a broader dialogue concerning the delayed second wave of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he now anticipates could be pushed back by one to two quarters.

He states, “I believe the timeline for this is delayed by 1-2 quarters. Some market views. Experts now suggest that solicitation approval/ETFs added to wealth management platforms is slated for Q4 instead of late May as originally suggested.” He believes that this delay in ETF approvals could result in a lack of immediate capital influx into the market, thereby potentially reversing the current upward momentum.

Impacting the broader crypto market, Kang’s prediction for Solana, Kang’s prognosis is less optimistic. He highlights Solana’s price volatility, which has been significantly influenced by meme-driven trading activities.

“Solana has been a great horse this cycle but it’s seen the reflexivity from the meme trading demand works in both directions. If meme trading takes a pause for the next few months, then you’ll likely be able to buy SOL near $80 again,” he remarked, indicating a potential 41% decline in SOL’s price from its current price level.

Reasons For A Potential Solana Price Crash

Crypto analyst TexasHedge further elaborated on Kang’s insights, providing a nuanced view of the market dynamics that influenced Solana’s price movements. He discussed the historical attractiveness of Solana as a high-risk, high-reward investment, often referred to metaphorically as “the world’s best casino.”

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This environment attracted significant capital inflows, which were crucial in driving up Solana’s valuation during its peak periods. “Kang’s SOL commentary makes a lot of sense. Solana remains arguably the best casino in the world, but casino outflows are as painful for the SOL token as inflows were beneficial,” the crypto analyst noted.

TexasHedge shared his previous investment approach, which saw Solana as a compelling trade based on several factors: Initially, it involved the re-rating of Solana, which had been considered a laggard in the crypto space due to the FTX collapse but then gained momentum. Another factor was the strong influx of capital into SOL because of the memecoin frenzy. Lastly, Solana’s movement often mirrored broader crypto market trends, benefiting from the overall market beta.

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Solana Down 40% But Analyst Says Now’s The Time To Buy SOL

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Reflecting on these factors, TexasHedge remarked, “I liked SOL in October 2023 as a three-part trade: (i) re-rating of a presumed dead chain, (ii) inflows into the world’s best casino, and (iii) crypto beta. Now, you’re largely just left with (iii), at much higher levels, and amid a backdrop in which it is hard to make a great case that SOL is the best expression of crypto beta.”

Moreover, the analyst pointed out several structural challenges that Solana faces, which might contribute to a downward price correction. These include an inherent annual inflation of 5.21%, translating to about 82,570 SOL entering the market each year—worth approximately $11.1 million at current prices—and the regular monthly release of locked SOL purchased from FTX, which increases supply and potentially depresses prices if demand doesn’t match up.

“Even absent a cooling of memecoin mania, the outlook over the next few months is challenging,” TexasHedge concluded, indicating a tough road ahead for Solana amidst reduced speculative memecoin trading and ongoing market pressures.

At press time, SOL traded at $137.

Solana price
SOL price needs to hold the 0.5 Fibonacci level, 1-week chart | Source: SOLUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from CoolWallet, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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