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Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection to 5%
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Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability Of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection To 5%

Semilore Faleti
Semilore Faleti
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin spot ETF

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Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as crypto enthusiasts worldwide anticipate a wide-scale approval of various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.

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Why The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Appears Nearly Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In

In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC’s response on their application.

However, in a recent X post on January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this greenlight to an astounding 95% after declaring that there was only a 5% probability the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF bid in the coming days. 

Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024

This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK/21 shares spontaneously withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he claimed to be highly unlikely. 

Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, resulting in a drawn-out court battle between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would rather avoid, especially following its recent loud legal loss against Grayscale investment.

The final event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the clearance of the ARK/21 Shares ETF bid is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, another scenario that appears remotely possible.  

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The D-Day Approaches

The importance of ARK/21 Shares’ joint bid to the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around its final deadline date for an SEC response, which is the earliest of the bunch. Now, it is believed that the SEC will rather approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once regardless of their respective final deadline date in a similar fashion as it did with Ether-futures ETFs in August. 

This belief is backed by the discussions between the US regulator and various applicants in the last few weeks, leading to amendments in respective proposals, which indicates the preparation of an incoming approval.

At the time of writing, the set date of expectation remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts highly enthusiastic about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050, having gained by 4.50% in the last week.

BTC trading at $44,038.02 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
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Semilore Faleti
Semilore Faleti

Semilore Faleti

Semilore Faleti is a cryptocurrency writer specialized in the field of journalism and content creation. While he started out writing on several subjects, Semilore soon found a knack for cracking down on the complexities and intricacies in the intriguing world of blockchains and cryptocurrency.

Read more

Semilore is drawn to the efficiency of digital assets in terms of storing, and transferring value. He is a staunch advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency as he believes it can improve the digitalization and transparency of the existing financial systems.

In two years of active crypto writing, Semilore has covered multiple aspects of the digital asset space including blockchains, decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, non-fungible tokens (NFT), regulations and network upgrades among others.

In his early years, Semilore honed his skills as a content writer, curating educational articles that catered to a wide audience. His pieces were particularly valuable for individuals new to the crypto space, offering insightful explanations that demystified the world of digital currencies.

Semilore also curated pieces for veteran crypto users ensuring they were up to date with the latest blockchains, decentralized applications and network updates. This foundation in educational writing has continued to inform his work, ensuring that his current work remains accessible, accurate and informative.

Currently at NewsBTC, Semilore is dedicated to reporting the latest news on cryptocurrency price action, on-chain developments and whale activity. He also covers the latest token analysis and price predictions by top market experts thus providing readers with potentially insightful and actionable information.

Through his meticulous research and engaging writing style, Semilore strives to establish himself as a trusted source in the crypto journalism field to inform and educate his audience on the latest trends and developments in the rapidly evolving world of digital assets.

Outside his work, Semilore possesses other passions like all individuals. He is a big music fan with an interest in almost every genre. He can be described as a “music nomad” always ready to listen to new artists and explore new trends.

Semilore Faleti is also a strong advocate for social justice, preaching fairness, inclusivity, and equity. He actively promotes the engagement of issues centred around systemic inequalities and all forms of discrimination.

He also promotes political participation by all persons at all levels. He believes active contribution to governmental systems and policies is the fastest and most effective way to bring about permanent positive change in any society.

In conclusion, Semilore Faleti exemplifies the convergence of expertise, passion, and advocacy in the world of crypto journalism. He is a rare individual whose work in documenting the evolution of cryptocurrency will remain relevant for years to come.

His dedication to demystifying digital assets and advocating for their adoption, combined with his commitment to social justice and political engagement, positions him as a dynamic and influential voice in the industry.

Whether through his meticulous reporting at NewsBTC or his fervent promotion of fairness and equity, Semilore continues to inform, educate, and inspire his audience, striving for a more transparent and inclusive financial future.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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