In a recent report, market researcher and analyst DeFi Ignas has provided a detailed analysis of the current bearish and bullish cases for the leading altcoin, Ethereum (ETH), offering valuable insights into the cryptocurrency’s prospects.
Factors Behind The Ethereum Underperformance
Ethereum has struggled to keep pace with its crypto peers over the past two years, declining 47% against Bitcoin (BTC) and underperforming Solana (SOL) by 6.8x since the market lows of early 2023.
According to Ignas, the reasons behind this underperformance are open to debate, but a few key factors stand out. Firstly, the “digital gold” narrative surrounding Bitcoin is easier for new retail users and institutions to grasp than Ethereum’s more complex story.
Additionally, the rising prominence of Solana, which is catching up to or sometimes even surpassing Ethereum in active users, transaction volume, and mindshare, has put pressure on the leading smart contract platform.
“Solana is a riskier (lower market cap) bet on smart contract adoption, while Ethereum is squeezed in between,” Ignas explains. “Ethereum’s modular approach with Layer-2 solutions has also led to a fragmentation of liquidity and a more complicated user experience.”
However, the researcher remains bullish on Ethereum’s long-term potential, citing several compelling reasons to watch.
Network Effects And Real-World Use Cases
- Efficient and Deflationary Network: If Ethereum’s gas prices remain around 20 Gwei, the network is considered deflationary and scalable, making it an attractive and efficient option for users.
- Decentralization and Security: Ethereum’s decentralization and security have attracted the trust of major institutions, including BlackRock, PayPal, JPMorgan, and Santander, who are testing blockchain settlement and tokenization on the platform.
- Mature DeFi Ecosystem: Ignas contends that Ethereum and its Layer-2 solutions boast “the most mature decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem” in the crypto space, with significant combined total value locked (TVL) and trading volume, attracting more users and driving up gas fees and ETH burning.
- Network Effects: Ethereum’s first-mover advantage and the largest developer mindshare contribute to its network effects, solidifying its position as the leading smart contract platform.
- Real-World Asset Tokenization: Ethereum is emerging as the preferred chain for tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs), with 52% of all stablecoins and 73% of all U.S. Treasuries currently tokenized on the platform.
The Overlooked Catalyst?
According to the researcher, another catalyst that few are discussing but that could have a significant impact is the upcoming Pectra upgrade, which is expected in the first quarter of 2025.
This upgrade, which merges the Prague (execution layer) and Electra (consensus layer) updates, promises to introduce several key improvements, including Account Abstraction (enhancing user experience), staking improvements, and scalability.
“The market is underestimating the importance of the Pectra upgrade,” Ignas said. “Features like Account Abstraction, staking enhancements, and scalability improvements could be game-changers for Ethereum’s adoption and usability.”
While trading at $2,670 as of this writing, VanEck’s ETH base price forecast of $11,800 by 2030 may seem bearish to some, Ignas pointed out, but it still represents a 4.4x increase – significantly more than Solana’s 2.2x forecast over the same period.
Ultimately, with a solid ecosystem, growing institutional support, and upcoming technical upgrades, the researcher notes that the bullish case for Ethereum looks increasingly compelling, even as the asset navigates near-term headwinds.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com