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Ethereum Seeing High Exchange Outflows, But Watch Out For This Bearish Signal
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Ethereum Seeing High Exchange Outflows, But Watch Out For This Bearish Signal

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
10 months ago
3 mins read
Ethereum

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On-chain data shows Ethereum has been observing high exchange outflows recently, but a development related to Tether (USDT) may be a bearish obstacle for the market.

Ethereum And Tether Both Have Seen Withdrawals From Exchanges Recently

As explained by the on-chain analytics firm Santiment in a new post on X, the market is ending July on a mixed note in terms of the exchange flows. The metric of interest here is the “Exchange Flow Balance,” which measures the net amount of a given asset that’s entering into or exiting the wallets associated with centralized exchanges.

When the value of this metric is positive, it means the inflows to these platforms are outweighing the outflows right now. Such a trend implies there is currently demand for trading away the asset among the investors.

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On the other hand, the indicator being negative implies the holders are making net withdrawals from the exchanges, potentially holding onto their coins in the long term.

What implications either of these trends would have on the wider market depends on the exact type of cryptocurrency the one in question is: stablecoin or volatile asset. In the context of the current topic, Santiment has cited the data for Ethereum and Tether, which means both types of coins are relevant here.

Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Exchange Flow Balance for the two assets over the past few months:

Ethereum & Tether Exchange Flow Balance
The value of the indicator seems to have been negative for both of these coins recently | Source: Santiment on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Exchange Flow Balance has recently observed a sharp negative spike for both Ethereum and Tether recently, implying that investors have been taking large amounts of these coins off into self-custody.

For volatile assets, trading the asset away can have a negative effect on its price, so the exchange reserve going up can be a bearish sign. The Exchange Flow Balance being negative, on the contrary, can be bullish, as it implies the potential “sell supply” of the coin is decreasing.

During the latest outflow spree, investors have withdrawn 80,763 ETH (almost $268 million) from these platforms, which is the largest outflow spike in five months. Thus, Ethereum has seen its sell supply go through a significant decline.

In the case of stablecoins, exchange inflows also mean the investors want to swap the asset, but as these tokens have their value “stable” around the $1 mark by definition, such trades have no effect on their price.

This doesn’t mean that they aren’t of any consequence to the market, however, as investors usually use stables to buy a volatile asset like Ethereum, so large exchange inflows of a stablecoin like Tether can be bullish for these other coins.

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In this view, the exchange reserve of USDT and other stables can be considered as a potential “buy supply” for the volatile cryptocurrencies. Recently, USDT has seen net withdrawals of $346 million, meaning that this buy supply has gone down.

“This reflects less buying power for future purchases from traders, which is generally a necessary ingredient needed to boost prices in the long run,” notes Santiment. It now remains to be seen how the Ethereum price will develop in the near future, given that both bullish and bearish developments have simultaneously occurred in the market.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at around $3,300, down more than 3% over the past week.

Ethereum Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has been moving sideways over the last few days | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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