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Can Ethereum Reclaim $4,000? Fragile Fundamentals Threaten To Send ETH Crashing
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Can Ethereum Reclaim $4,000? Fragile Fundamentals Threaten To Send ETH Crashing

Scott Matherson
Scott Matherson
1 year ago
3 mins read
Ethereum

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Ethereum has put on a disappointing performance for its investors over the last few weeks, leading to concerns on whether the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has lost its shine. The cryptocurrency continues to skirt around the $3,100 level, not making any significant breaks upward. This points to weak fundamentals that could trigger a price decline.

Ethereum Fails To Make Meaningful Moves

Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, has pointed out some worrying developments with the Ethereum price. In a new report shared with NewsBTC, he explains that despite Ethereum remaining highly correlated to Bitcoin with an R-Square of 95%, it continues to perform poorly while the latter has made new all-time highs.

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Thielen points back to ETH’s performance in the last bull market, which was closely tied to new sectors popping out of the network, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). This caused demand to skyrocket, and in turn, the price followed as users gobbled up ETH for the high gas fee required to transact on the blockchain.

However, Ethereum has failed to maintain this momentum, which can be attributed to its inability to bring the upgrades that users needed in time. Thielen explains that the Dencun upgrade which helped solved the high gas fee issues had come three years too late because by 2024 when the upgrade arrived, users had moved on to Layer 2 networks. Also, during this time, other Layer 1 networks have seen a rise in users and Solana is one example of this.

Ethereum fees

Source: 10x Research

The researcher further explained that the weak fundamentals of ETH are now not only affecting its price but has had a spillover effect to Bitcoin. “Ethereum’s weak fundamentals are becoming a roadblock for Bitcoin as they prevent broad fiat inflow into the crypto ecosystem,” Thielen stated.

Better To Short ETH

Thielen’s analysis of Ethereum also spreads to the drop in stablecoin usage on the network. Back in 2021, Ethereum had dominated stablecoin transactions such as USDT and USDC. However, it seems like, with other things, the high fees have driven users towards other networks. Blockchains such as Tron (TRX) are now dominating stablecoin transactions, leaving ETH in the dust.

Additionally, there is also the fact that ETH’s issuance is turning inflationary once again. After the London Hard Fork, also known as EIP-1559, was completed in 2021, the network saw its issuance turn deflationary for the first time as ETH burned quickly surpassed ETH being brought into circulation.

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However, this has now changed in the past months as there have been more ETH issued than those burned, Thielen notes. To put this in perspective, a total of 74,000 ETH were issued compared to only 43,000 ETH burned. This inflation, coupled with the fact that staking rewards have now dropped to 3%, below the 5.1% offered by Treasury Yields, Ethereum has had a hard time maintaining bullish sentiment.

Given these developments, the researcher believes it is better to be bearish on Ethereum right now. “Right now, we would be more comfortable holding a short position in ETH than a long one in BTC as Ethereum’s fundamentals are fragile, which is not yet reflected in ETH prices,” Thielen concludes.

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com

ETH price fails to hold $3,100 | Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Watcher Guru, chart from Tradingview.com
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Scott Matherson
Scott Matherson

Scott Matherson

Scott Matherson is a prominent crypto writer at NewsBTC with a knack for capturing the pulse of the market, covering pivotal shifts, technological advancements, and regulatory changes with precision. Having witnessed the evolving landscape of the crypto world firsthand, Scott is able to dissect complex crypto topics and present them in an accessible and engaging manner. Scott's dedication to clarity and accuracy has made him an indispensable asset, helping to demystify the complex world of cryptocurrency for countless readers.

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Scott’s experience spans a number of industries outside of crypto including banking and investment. He has brought his vast experience from these industries into crypto, which allows him to understand even the most complex topics and break them down in a way that is easy for readers from all works of life to understand. Scott’s pieces have helped to break down cryptocurrency processes and how they work, as well as the underlying groundbreaking technology that makes them so important to everyday life.

With years of experience in the crypto market, Scott began to focus on his true passion: writing. During this time, Scott has been able to author countless influential pieces that have drawn in millions of readers and have shaped public opinion across various important topics. His repertoire spans hundreds of articles on various sectors in the crypto industry, including decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized exchanges (DEXes), Staking, Liquid Staking, emerging technologies, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), among others.

Scott’s influence is not just limited to the countless discussions that his publications have sparked but also as a consultant for major projects in the space. He has consulted on issues ranging from crypto regulations to new technology deployment. Scott’s expertise also spans community building and contributes to a number of causes to further the development of the crypto industry.

Scott is an advocate for sustainable practices within the crypto industry and has championed discussions around green blockchain solutions. His ability to keep in line with market trends has made his work a favorite among crypto investors.
In his personal life, Scott is an avid traveler and his exposure to the world and various way of life has helped him to understand how important technologies like the blockchain and cryptocurrencies are. This has been key in his understanding of its global impact, as well as his ability to connect socio-economic developments to technological trends around the globe like no one else.

Scott is known for his work in community education to help people understand crypto technology and how its existence impacts their lives. He is a well-respected figure in his community, known for his work in helping to enlighten and inspire the next generation as they channel their energies into pressing issues. His work is a testament to his dedication and commitment to education and innovation, as well as the promotion of ethical practices in the rapidly developing world of cryptocurrencies.

Scott stands steady in the frontlines of the crypto revolution and is committed to helping to shape a future that promotes the development of technology in an ethical manner that translates to the benefit of all in the society.

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Reason to trust

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