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How Low Can Dogecoin Go Before It Rebounds? Expert Forecasts
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How Low Can Dogecoin Go Before It Rebounds? Expert Forecasts

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
5 months ago
3 mins read
How low can Dogecoin price go

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Over the past 12 days, Dogecoin (DOGE) has endured a sharp decline, shedding more than 40% of its value. After trading above $0.48 on December 8, the meme-inspired cryptocurrency briefly sank to $0.2638 by December 20, prompting a wave of speculation about its near-term direction. The backdrop to this drawdown has been the broader crypto market’s response to US Federal Reserve policy signals, with the latest downturn largely attributed to more hawkish projections from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

While the Fed’s December meeting delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut, the real shock came from the revised dot plot, which pointed to fewer future cuts than previously anticipated. The market had hoped for three rate cuts in 2025, but the FOMC’s guidance now leans toward just two, suggesting a more cautious approach amid persistent inflationary pressures. This shift in outlook triggered broad-based selling in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $93,000, and altcoins -20% drawdowns. Within 24 hours, a staggering $1.17 billion in long positions were liquidated across the crypto markets.

How Low Can Dogecoin Go?

A number of prominent analysts have weighed in on DOGE’s retreat, framing it within the context of historical patterns and macro-level drivers. Technical analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) highlights the significance of previous cycles. He notes that, historically, Dogecoin has experienced multiple significant corrections en route to its cycle tops, stating that the current pullback—similar to past 50% drawdowns—could be part of a normal bull market structure rather than a sign of systemic weakness.

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According to Kevin, “In the previous cycle Dogecoin had three separate 50% corrections on the way to its cycle top. If we tap macro structured support and the macro golden pocket right below that would be roughly a 45% correction from the high which based off historical analyses would be just enough for us to resume uptrend. If we lose $0.26 cents on a weekly close then I would start to seriously worry about this market structure but until then this should be treated as a normal bull market pullback.”

Dogecoin technical analysis
Dogecoin technical analysis | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA

Kevin also underscores Bitcoin’s influence over the altcoin landscape. Instead of focusing solely on DOGE’s standalone chart, he encourages traders to “not be hyper focused on altcoin charts” to gauge the market’s macro direction. BTC remains the pivotal asset whose price action often dictates sentiment across the broader crypto space.

Kevin illustrated this point by sharing a BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, suggesting the market may seek to flush out lower liquidity pockets before any meaningful rebound. “Let’s go snag all that liquidity at $95K-90K and then we can start talking about a bounce. Until then no reason to over analyze. From a fundamental standpoint the market is overreacting to what Powell is saying and not actually listening to him. Just because rate cut projections,” he writes.

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Balo (@btcbalo), another crypto analyst, reinforces the importance of the $0.26 level. He points out that Dogecoin “still has a few days to save the weekly,” indicating that a weekly close above this threshold would maintain a structurally sound market framework.

A successful defense of the $0.26 zone could set the stage for a renewed uptrend, potentially targeting a return to $0.42—what Balo views as a critical pivot point. Reclaiming $0.42 would, in his words, allow DOGE to “teleport” toward the $4 mark, a scenario he associates with a full-scale bull run recovery.

Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin needs to close above the trend line | Source: X @btcbalo

A third analyst, CEO (@Investments_CEO), brings a historical perspective, suggesting that DOGE’s current pattern aligns with its multi-year cyclical nature. “DOGE appears to be aligning with its typical 3-4 year cycle. Zoom out,” he states.

The analyst refers to DOGE’s price action following its previous cycle fractal. Back in 2021, Dogecoin experienced its first major run-up approaching its all-time high (ATH). After a 50% correction, DOGE resumed its rally, broke through the ATH, and then entered price discovery. As mentioned earlier, this scenario could align with the $0.26 price target.

Dogecoin fractal analysis
Dogecoin follow its previous cycle fractal | Source: X @Investments_CEO

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.26919.

Dogecoin price
Dogecoin price, 1-day chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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