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Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today? Key Reasons Explained
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Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today? Key Reasons Explained

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
9 months ago
3 mins read
Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today

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While Bitcoin was trading at $59,076 yesterday, it dropped to as low as $57,127 during the early Asian trading session today. BTC closed the week at $57,565, once again losing important ground needed to create a bullish reversal. The trajectory is impacted by several factors.

#1: Macro Fears Of A Recession

The looming threat of a US recession is causing palpable tension in financial markets. This is especially pertinent for Bitcoin, which has not yet weathered a full economic downturn since its inception.

As the Federal Reserve gears up for its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17-18, 2024, the discourse around monetary policy has intensified. The anticipation of a rate cut has been cemented by Jerome Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a unanimous expectation of a rate adjustment.

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The breakdown of expectations reveals a 69% inclination towards a 25 basis points cut, while a significant minority of 31% predicts a more aggressive 50 basis points reduction. According to Tom Capital, a crypto analyst, such drastic cuts could be interpreted as signs of an economic crisis rather than mere adjustments, which complicates the investment outlook for Bitcoin.

“50 bps cut by the FED is an emergency cut, there is simply no other way to look at it. If your current bullish thesis for crypto rallying is predicated on large rate cuts, you might want to reconsider,” Tom Capital noted through X. This sentiment was echoed by another analyst, Skew (@52kskew), who highlighted the importance of upcoming US economic data releases, particularly the BLS jobs report due on September 6.

Tom Capital added: “Needs to be real shitty jobs data in lead up to NFP on Friday, then a shocker NFP itself to get 50 bps (which isn’t out of the question given unreliability of data). However, I reckon the sticker shock of a terrible NFP is a higher probability risk off move, starting in Nas.”

#2: Bitcoin Seasonality

Rekt Capital, another crypto analyst, provided insights into the seasonal patterns affecting Bitcoin. Historical data since 2013 shows a mixed performance for Bitcoin in September, with gains in some years offset by losses in others.

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Bitcoin Continues To Exit Exchanges As Supply Drops To New 2024 Low

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“Is September really a down month for BTC? Since 2013, BTC saw monthly returns of +2.35%, +6.04%, and +3.91% across three Septembers. And across 6 Septembers, BTC saw negative monthly returns ranging between -1% to -7.5%, with only two instances of double-digit downside (i.e., -19.01% and -13.38%). Macro-wise, however, September is typically a month of consolidation,” Rekt Capital analyzed.

Bitcoin seasonality
Bitcoin seasonality | Source: X @rektcapital

#3: Low Bitcoin Sentiment

Ali Martinez, by analyzing exchange-related on-chain data, pinpointed a sustained decline in investor interest and network utilization. “The Exchange Volume Momentum indicator shows a sustained drop in exchange-related on-chain activity, which usually points to lower investor interest in Bitcoin and decreased network usage,” Martinez stated, suggesting that the enthusiasm for using Bitcoin has cooled somewhat, potentially affecting its price negatively.

Bitcoin Exchange Volume Momentum
Bitcoin Exchange Volume Momentum | Source: X @ali_charts

Martinez added, “Bitcoin miners sold 2,655 BTC over the weekend, worth around $154 million!”

#4: Technical Trading Conditions

The technical outlook for Bitcoin is bleak as well, with the cryptocurrency failing to secure a strong weekly close. “Bitcoin needs to Weekly Close above ~$58,450 to protect the Channel Bottom and secure it as support on this retest. Price is at this support right now. An ideal close would even be ~$59,000 to get BTC above the blue Higher Low dating back to early July,” remarked Rekt Capital.

At press time, BTC traded at $58,036.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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