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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Record September Gives Bitcoin 82% Odds For An Ultra Bullish Q4: Analyst

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
11 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin price news

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Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) posits a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024. Leveraging historical data, Astronomer provides an analysis via X, suggesting an 82% probability of an ultra bullish trend based on the performance of Bitcoin in September.

The crypto analyst opens his analysis with an emphasis on the unexpected positive performance of Bitcoin in September. “September is about to close and to the general public’s surprise, it’s looking like it’s going to be green (by a long shot), with the chance of setting the greenest September in 2024, supporting our breakout thesis we have been on for a while now,” he writes.

Delving into the sentiment of the market, Astronomer notes a significant disconnect between public perception and actual market positions. “And although we’re not the only ones anymore that are on the full bull thesis, data is and remains data. And after thorough inspection, despite the talking/analysis posts, most are not positioned yet, took profit too early or will cheer for dips and say they are a gift for the reason of wanting one,” he explained.

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He further elaborates on the sentiment within closed circles: “This observation is not just coming from public posts or Twitter, but also from the array of paid groups partaken in to conduct these analyses. Not allowed to share names or details, but most groups indeed are long and took profit early, are looking for an entry, or are short. So the market’s hand seems to be working.”

82% Chance Bitcoin Will Be Bullish

Astronomer’s bullish thesis leans on historical data, particularly the cyclical nature of the Bitcoin price. “The data analysis is fairly simple here: each time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months after, i.e., a green October, November, and December. And this has happened 3/3 times since BTC inception,” he asserts, signifying a strong seasonal pattern.

Bitcoin seasonality
Bitcoin performance by month | Source: X @astronomer_zero

However, he is quick to temper this with a critique of his methodology, admitting to the potential pitfalls of low data samples: “Now like I said, I am not the biggest fan of seasonality and our analysis only has 3 data points, which gives us only a 67% confidence to make the claim that the next three months will indeed be green (low data fallacy). But to add significance, by the binary nature of bullish/bearish, there is also exclusivity to the data: if September is not green, 6 out of 8 times, Q4 has not been green each month.”

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He refines his thesis further, “So, by including the exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret claim, using more data points is that: ‘The direction of September has determined the general direction of Q4 and if September is green and not red, a bullish (not bearish) Q4 has followed 9 out of 11 times. So if September closes above $59k, there is an 82% chance Q4 will be bullish’.”

The prediction stirred dialogue within the community. A user @pieceofsheet99 commented skeptically, suggesting the potential for an unexpected downturn: “If September turned out to be green to everyone’s surprise, October can also turn out to be red to everyone’s surprise as well.” Astronomer responded, reaffirming his reliance on historical trends, “Indeed, but that’s not what we have seen typically. So, I personally, as always, stick to the data.”

Astronomer’s analysis concludes on a note of strategic optimism, emphasizing the importance of aligning with market dynamics and historical patterns rather than speculative impulses. “How bullish? We will see (time is more important than price), but it’s not about planning for retirement and making fast money. It’s about being on the right side of the trade, time after time after time, enjoying the market stress-free and not having too many regrets through losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process). And this way, eventually (rather soon), you hit your goals.”

At press time, BTC traded at $64,622.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price marks a higher high | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

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