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Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Here's What 7 Experts Say
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Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Here’s What 7 Experts Say

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
11 months ago
3 mins read
bitcoin bottom

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The market saw a dramatic Bitcoin price drop over the past two days, plunging from a high of $64,500 on Sunday to a low of $58,474. Yesterday’s steep decline followed an unexpected announcement from the trustee of the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, revealing plans to commence BTC and BCH payouts in early July—a move that has sent shockwaves through the market.

This news raises urgent questions about the immediate future of Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Amidst this market turmoil, several prominent cryptocurrency analysts have weighed in, offering their insights on whether Bitcoin could be nearing a local bottom. Here is a deeper dive into their analysis and perspectives:

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Tony “The Bull” Severino, Chief Analyst at NewsBTC, provided a technical breakdown of the current situation. Utilizing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, Severino pointed out that the RSI levels are now as oversold as they were during the collapse of FTX, suggesting a potential cyclical bottom.

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“Bitcoin’s daily RSI is as oversold as during the FTX collapse, indicating a cyclical bottom might be forming,” said Severino. This analysis implies that, historically, such levels have often preceded a rebound or at least a stabilization in price.

Bitcoin technical analysis
Bitcoin technical analysis | Source: X @tonythebullBTC

Volume And Market Behavior

The Byzantine General, a trader and market strategist, noted the unusually high spot volume accompanying the price drop. “We’re seeing significantly high spot volume, which historically can signal a local bottom,” he remarked. High trading volumes during a price drop can indicate panic selling, which often exhausts itself leading to potential recovery.

Bitcoin volume analysis
Bitcoin volume analysis | Source: X @ByzGeneral

Social Media Sentiment

Santiment, an analytics platform focusing on social metrics, observed a spike in discussions around the term “bottom” across various social media platforms. “This is one of the highest spikes in social volume and dominance for the word ‘bottom’ we’ve observed in the past year,” they reported. Historically, such spikes can signify heightened market attention that may correlate with pivotal market movements.

Bitcoin sentiment
Bitcoin sentiment | Source: X @santimentfeed

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Historical Patterns And Technical Indicators

Teddy (@TeddyCleps), a cryptocurrency trader, emphasized the importance of historical patterns and specific technical indicators such as the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). “Historically, each correction in the BTC bull run has touched the 21-week EMA before rebounding. We’re approaching this indicator; if history is any guide, $61k could represent the bottom,” Teddy explained. The 21-week EMA is a key technical level watched by many traders for signs of long-term trend support.

On-Chain Data Analysis

James Check (@Checkmatey), an on-chain data analyst, shared his approach focused more on value acquisition rather than exact timing: “My strategy isn’t about pinpointing the absolute bottom but acquiring Bitcoin at significant discounts, as indicated by on-chain metrics like STH-SOPR and STH-MVRV both being below 1.” These metrics suggest that short-term holders are selling at a loss, which can be an opportunistic entry point for long-term investors.

I prefer acquiring sats when both STH-SOPR and STH-MVRV are below 1.

I’m not looking for bottoms, I’m looking for meaningful discounts.

Love to see it.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/Jou9TSH3A9

— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) June 25, 2024

Historical Post-Halving Performance

Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) analyzed Bitcoin’s performance in post-halving periods, referring to the event where Bitcoin mining rewards are halved, theoretically increasing its scarcity. “BTC has not broken the high nor lost the low of its ReAccumulation Range in any post-halving period. This historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin should hold these levels,” he outlined.

Bitcoin Halving cycle
Bitcoin Halving cycle | Source: X @rektcapital

Market Psychology

Cred (@CryptoCred), another respected trader, offered another angle and is not convinced the bottom is already in: “If this is the BTC bottom, I am likely to miss it. Often, a market that fails to break down at a level, only to return and close below it later, indicates a more legitimate breakdown. I’m not shorting but am also not buying.”

At press time, BTC traded at $61,014.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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