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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow
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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Buying Bitcoin Now Is Like Getting It Below $10,000 In 2019: Experts

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin price news

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Bitcoin is weaving through a consolidation phase since marking a new all-time high of $73,777 in mid-March. Since then, Bitcoin’s daily closing prices have exhibited significant restraint, never sealing above $71,500 and maintaining a floor above $54,000, though it has seen a major intraday low touching $49,000. This consolidation phase has nudged the Fear and Greed Index towards a cautious “fear” score of 30, revealing an atmosphere of apprehension amongst traders who find themselves frequently whipsawed by the volatile market dynamics.

Is $60,000 The New $10,000 For Bitcoin Price?

Despite the prevailing market nerves, some market experts believe that this is a potential buying opportunity, reminiscent of similar market conditions seen in 2019. Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart remarked via X: “Bitcoin right now around $50k-$70k over the last 6 months kinda sorta reminds of BTC trading around $7k – $10k from mid 2019 through early to mid 2020.”

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He acknowledges the complexities of comparing historical and current charts, emphasizing that while historical patterns should not dictate future outcomes, the comparative dynamics offer insightful parallels. “I obviously know not to equate historical charts with current charts. i know all the differences of the current price dynamics etc. $10k was way further off the $20k+ ATH that 60K is. But go ahead — make fun of me. I can take it,” Seyffart added.

James “Checkmate” Check, a leading on-chain analyst and co-founder of Checkonchain, concurred with Seyffart’s observation. “The similarities between the 2024 chop-consolidation, and the one we experienced back in 2019 are strange, and uncanny.”

In 2019, the market notably surged from $4,000 to $14,000 within three months, significantly driven by the PlusToken Ponzi scheme in China, which absorbed approximately 2% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply at the time. This was followed by a mass sell-off of these acquired coins on Huobi by the Chinese CCP, contributing to prolonged market choppiness until the sharp downturn in March 2020.

Drawing a parallel, Check noted that a similar sequence unfolded in 2024 when the market climbed from $40,000 to $73,777, catalyzed by a substantial uptake in spot bids from US spot ETFs, absorbing around 5% of the Bitcoin supply. This was succeeded by substantial selling activities from the US and German governments, involving approximately 70,000 BTC, which contributed to sustained market chop until the 5-August Yen Carry Trade unwind.

“Seriously, it is truly bizarre how similar these events are, and this is just based on the headline events. There is even more evidence below the surface,” Check concluded. He shared several on-chain metrics which highlight the strong similarities.

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His “Supply Overheads During 2024 Chop-consolidation” chart showed that the 6-month sum of spent coins older than 1 year was quite similar to historical movements. In 2019, 1.75 million BTC was moved by this cohort; comparably, in 2024, as of today, 1.9 million BTC has been mobilized. Noteworthy, the large entities, including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), German Government, and the US government, accounted for about 454,000 BTC of this movement.

Supply Overheads During 2024 Chop-consolidation
Supply Overheads During 2024 Chop-consolidation | Source: X @_Checkmatey_

Additional data from Check’s analysis highlighted the “Realized Profits” during these periods. In 2019, 3.4 million BTC were sold for profit over six months. In 2024, this figure stands at 3.33 million BTC.

Realized Profit (6 month sum)
Realized Profit (6 month sum) | Source: X @_Checkmatey_

However, the analysis of realized losses provides a stark contrast between the two periods. In 2019, losses equaled 30% of the profits, indicating a market fraught with investor fear and readiness to sell at losses. Conversely, in 2024, losses are only 10% of the profits. This comparison demonstrates how market sentiment has shifted from 2019 to 2024, with investors in 2024 appearing more confident and less prone to panic selling.

Realized Loss (6 month sum)
Realized Loss (6 month sum) | | Source: X @_Checkmatey_

At press time, BTC traded at $59,689.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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