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Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or Collapse?
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Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or Collapse?

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
2 months ago
3 mins read
bitcoin price news

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Bitcoin (BTC) remains at a critical juncture, holding above its yearly pivot level. In his latest market analysis, seasoned crypto trader Josh Olszewicz outlined key technical factors that could determine Bitcoin’s next move in his latest video analysis, emphasizing the importance of RSI divergences, volume trends, and candlestick formations.

With BTC experiencing heavy downward pressure over the past few weeks, Olszewicz examined whether the market has reached an exhaustion point for sellers or if further downside remains likely.

Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?

A crucial observation in Olszewicz’s analysis is the presence of bullish divergence on both RSI and volume, a pattern that historically signals a potential trend reversal. He noted: “BTC for the moment is holding at the yearly pivot, it’s holding at the OG Pitchfork here, and we did put in a bullish divergence on both RSI and volume. We got a lower low in price, higher low in RSI on lower volume.”

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This setup mirrors similar conditions observed in August and September, where Bitcoin saw relatively equal lows in price, but RSI formed significantly higher lows. While this does not guarantee an imminent reversal, Olszewicz pointed out that it increases the probability of a potential upside move, especially if further confirmations arise.

From a candlestick perspective, Bitcoin’s price action is exhibiting early signs of potential stabilization. Olszewicz highlighted the significance of Dragonfly Doji formations, particularly in combination with bullish engulfing candles, which often signal seller exhaustion and trend reversals.

“What I would love to see on many of these charts is what we’re already seeing on the daily—a green Dragonfly candlestick. It’s a small body with a long wick, showing clear rejection of lower prices. If confirmed, this could be an early bottoming signal.”

However, he cautioned that while these patterns can be indicative of a shift in market sentiment, they are not foolproof and require additional confirmation from price structure and momentum indicators. Moreover, Olszewicz added via X: “BTC iHS brewing? Way too early to call this definitively but we’ve got the early trappings of a multi-week bottom here. Would align with a potential kumo breakout in Q2 and measures to an ATH retest. Something to monitor throughout March, a new LL would likely negate this possibility.”

Bitcoin inverse Head and Shoulder pattern
Bitcoin inverse Head and Shoulder pattern | Source: X @CarpeNoctom

Olszewicz advised traders to remain disciplined and avoid over-leveraging positions in volatile conditions. He stressed the importance of maintaining a consistent trade sizing strategy and avoiding emotional decision-making. “You don’t have to make it all back in one trade. You don’t have to revenge trade. Confidence drops in times of chaos, and that’s when most people make mistakes.”

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He also warned against blindly dollar-cost averaging into assets simply because they appear heavily discounted: “Just because something is down 80% doesn’t mean it’s an automatic buy. The technicals might look great today, but that doesn’t mean it won’t keep going lower. That’s why risk management is key.”

While the broader macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain—with ongoing tariff concerns and mixed signals from traditional markets—Bitcoin’s technical positioning suggests that a potential relief rally could emerge in the coming months.

Olszewicz suggested that March and April could be pivotal periods for Bitcoin, where a clearer trend could develop. However, he reiterated that for now, traders should focus on high-probability setups rather than speculative plays. “If BTC can stabilize here and reclaim key levels, the case for a stronger recovery into Q2 strengthens. But it’s too early to make that call. Right now, the best strategy may simply be to wait for high-confidence setups.”

At press time, BTC traded at $81,599.

Bitcoin price
BTC faces key resistance, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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