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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow
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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Bitcoin Price Could Massively Crash Like In May 2021, Warns Fund Manager

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin price crash

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Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the critical support level of $60,000, reaching a low of $57,914. Since Tuesday, Bitcoin has experienced a further 7% decline, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend. Currently, market sentiment is shifting markedly towards the bearish side.

Is A May 2021-Style Bitcoin Crash Looming?

Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, has raised significant concerns regarding the pattern emerging in the Bitcoin market, reminiscent of the conditions that led to the dramatic crash of May 2021. In a detailed analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Kang highlighted the overlooked criticality of the current market dynamics.

Kang stated, “Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin. The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts.”

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He noted the similarities in market conditions, particularly in terms of leveraged positions, which currently exceed $50 billion. “This figure does not include the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is higher, but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs. 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market,” Kang elaborated.

Kang also adjusted his projections for Bitcoin’s bottom, suggesting a steeper fall than earlier anticipated: “It’s likely that my initial estimates of low $50ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to $40ks.” He warned that such a pullback could significantly damage the market, necessitating a few months of consolidation and a downtrend before any reversal to an upward trend might be conceivable.

In a dialogue with Alex Krüger, a well-known macro and crypto analyst, the discussion explored the intricacies of open interest (OI) in the derivatives market, a crucial aspect of understanding market sentiment and directional biases. Krüger pointed out, “Much of that OI is not directional though,” suggesting a more complex market behavior than straightforward long and short positions.

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Responding, Kang clarified the composition of OI, saying, “Each unit of OI is one long + one short. Even if there are basis trade shorts on the short leg, there’s a directional long on the other end. So yes… less directional shorts.” The conversation further delved into whether derivatives traders are delta neutral, which affects market stability.

Krüger queried about market maker positions, and Kang responded, “I can assure you that there are not many market makers in the OI that are delta neutral long perps and short spot paying funding/borrow on both ends for a negative carry trade.”

What Happened In May 2021?

This ongoing discussion among experts reflects a deepening concern over the potential for a repeat of the May 2021 crash. During that period, Bitcoin’s price plummeted dramatically following a peak of around $64,000 in mid-April 2021. By the end of June, it had lost about 56% of its value. This crash was precipitated by a mix of factors, including regulatory crackdowns in China, environmental concerns voiced by influential figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a resulting cascade of panic selling among both retail and institutional investors.

In retrospect, the May 2021 downturn was characterized by a rapid shift in investor sentiment, driven by external shocks and exacerbated by the high levels of leverage in the market. Today, similar conditions could be forming according to Kang, with high leverage and extended periods without significant price corrections, suggesting that the market may be on the brink of another severe downturn.

At press time, BTC traded at $58,736.

Bitcoin price
BTC falls below $59,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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