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Bitcoin Could Peak Between $160,000 And $290,000 – Report
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Bitcoin Could Peak Between $160,000 And $290,000 If These Historical Patterns Repeat – Report

Rubmar Garcia
Rubmar Garcia
5 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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As we approach the end of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) continues flying to new highs, setting bullish expectations for the rest of the cycle. Bitfinex’s latest reports suggest when BTC’s peak could come and how much climbing might be left for the flagship crypto.

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Bitcoin’s ‘Unique’ Cycle

In its latest Alpha Report, Bitfinex highlighted the crypto industry’s big strides in adoption and mainstream recognition this year, which have differentiated this cycle from previous ones.

Notably, the launch and increasing institutional demand of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed expectations and attracted a “new class of investors” to the crypto space.

Per the report, this cycle has been “unique” as these new investors brought by ETFs and increasing confidence in the sector sent BTC’s price to a new ATH ahead of the Halving event, historically leading the flagship crypto to a new high after 5-7 months.

The industry also saw a growing interest in diversifying national reserves with cryptocurrencies, with several jurisdictions worldwide considering implementing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve after the flagship crypto’s recent performance.

According to Bitfinex analysts, these factors have kept BTC’s corrections smaller than other cycles and will likely continue this trend for the rest of the bull run:

In the current bull cycle, which began in mid to late 2023, Bitcoinʼs corrections have been smaller, particularly since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional and ETF demand providing consistent buying pressure, we expect this trend to continue, keeping future corrections limited and potentially shorter in duration.

Moreover, the upcoming crypto-friendly US administration added to the growing bullish sentiment surrounding the industry, leading to the massive post-election rally. As a result, the crypto market has grown 130% year-to-date (YTD) to a market capitalization of $3.69 trillion, increasing nearly 70% this quarter.

What’s Next For Bitcoin This Cycle?

The report noted Bitcoin’s performance, highlighting its 573% surge from its 2022 low of $15,487. The flagship crypto has also seen an increase of 130% year-to-date (YTD), fueled by this year’s industry achievements.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin broke past the $100,000 barrier for the first time, setting a new ATH closer to the $110,000 level on Monday. According to Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency still has several levels to climb in 2025, as historical data indicates that the market is mid-cycle.

This data suggests BTC’s price will likely peak around Q3 and Q4 2025, as it tends to do approximately 450 days post-halving. Meanwhile, metrics like Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and the Bull-Bear market indicator signal that “we remain in the bull phase but far from euphoric peaks.”

Bitfinex also explained that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in timing cycle highs, forecasting the peaks with a three-day window. The previous cycle’s predictions indicate that Bitcoin could peak between mid-2025 and early-2026.

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If it follows the 2021 cycle pattern, BTC could see its price experience a 40% increase to $339,000 and peak around June or July 2025. Nonetheless, the report notes that the flagship crypto has been on a trend of diminishing returns over the cycles.

Based on this, Bitcoin’s price might see a 15% to 20% increase to the $160,000-$200,000 range instead. However, if the cryptocurrency mirrors 2017’s cycle pattern, BTC’s rally could extend until January of 2026, peaking at $229,000 with similar diminishing returns.

As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, just 0.3% below its ATH.

bitcoin, btc, btcusdt
Bitcoin’s performance in the one-week chart. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
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Rubmar Garcia
Rubmar Garcia

Rubmar Garcia

Rubmar is a writer and translator who has been a crypto enthusiast for the past four years. Her goal as a writer is to create informative, complete, and easily understandable pieces accessible to those entering the crypto space. After learning about cryptocurrencies in 2019, Rubmar became curious about the world of possibilities the industry offered, quickly learning that financial freedom was at the palm of her hand with the developing technology.

Read more

From a young age, Rubmar was curious about how languages work, finding special interest in wordplay and the peculiarities of dialects. Her curiosity grew as she became an avid reader in her teenage years. She explored freedom and new words through her favorite books, which shaped her view of the world. Rubmar acquired the necessary skills for in-depth research and analytical thinking at university, where she studied Literature and Linguistics. Her studies have given her a sharp perspective on several topics and allowed her to turn every stone in her investigations.

In 2019, she first dipped her toes in the crypto industry when a friend introduced her to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but it wasn’t until 2020 that she started to dive into the depth of the industry. As Rubmar began to understand the mechanics of the crypto sphere, she saw a new world yet to be explored.

At the beginning of her crypto voyage, she discovered a new system that allowed her to have control over her finances. As a young adult of the 21st century, Rubmar has faced the challenges of the traditional banking system and the restrictions of fiat money.

After the failure of her home country’s economy, the limitations of traditional finances became clear. The bureaucratic, outdated structure made her feel hopeless and powerless amid an aggressive and distorted system created by hyperinflation. However, learning about decentralization and self-custody opened a realm of opportunities. Cryptocurrencies allowed her to experience financial control for the first time and expand her financial education.

Moreover, the peculiar nature of the crypto community sparked Rubmar’s curiosity about the other layers of the industry. As a result, she found a particular interest in discovering the diverse perspectives of investors, market watchers, experts, and developers. Her attempts to better understand the crypto space made her realize the strong links of the community with other industries, enriching her perspective of the sector. As someone who spends most of her day online, Rubmar enjoys finding the points where the crypto world meets with her other passions and hobbies ­–or her favorite memes.

In her free time, she usually finds joy in different art forms. As a child, she enlisted in every extra-curricular activity in her hometown, including music classes, dancing, jewelry making, and the local chorus. Despite her many attempts to learn different instruments, Rubmar only knows how to play the xylophone, which she played for 7 years in her school’s marching band.

She also has a passion for learning new languages and cultures, having set the goal to learn another six languages ­– currently attempting to learn Italian and Korean. Scrapbooking, paper crafting, and bookbinding are her biggest interests outside of work, constantly taking classes and attending workshops to learn new techniques. The rest of her free time is spent stressing over football matches and transfer market news or feeding cats –hers or stray.

In summary, Rubmar seeks to present entertaining and educational pieces to be enjoyed by everybody, aiming to report on the latest news and offer a unique perspective while adding a meme or a pun whenever possible.

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Reason to trust

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Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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