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Will Bitcoin See Another 'Thanksgiving Day Massacre'?
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Will Bitcoin See Another ‘Thanksgiving Day Massacre’? Experts Weigh In

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
6 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin news Thanksgiving crash

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Almost four years ago to the day, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic 17% plunge from $19,500 to $16,200 in 2020, an event that became infamously known as the “Thanksgiving Day Massacre.” As the holiday approaches once again, market participants are questioning whether history might repeat itself.

On Monday and Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price underwent an 8% correction, dropping from $98,871 to a low of $90,791. This sudden downturn has sparked discussions among analysts if history could be repeating for the BTC price.

Bitcoin ‘Thanksgiving Day Massacre’ 2024?

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, took to X to draw parallels between the current market and the events of 2020. “Who remembers the Thanksgiving dump of 2020? Bitcoin dumped 17% between Wednesday, Nov 25, and Friday, Nov 27, 2020. BTCUSD later went on to more than 3x over the next 5 months. Does history rhyme?”

A potential catalyst for the crash could be the global M2 money supply. Currently, a chart illustrating the correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 is circulating on X.

Bitcoin & Global M2
Bitcoin & Global M2 | Source: X @JoeConsorti

Joe Consorti, an analyst at Theya, observed that since September 2023, “Bitcoin has closely tracked global M2 with a ~70-day lag.” Over the past two months, global M2 has declined from $108.3 trillion to $104.7 trillion, driven by factors such as a strengthening US dollar—devaluing foreign currency-denominated M2 when converted into dollars—and economic slowdowns dampening lending and deposit creation.

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Consorti cautions, “If it continues to follow the current contraction in M2, a 20-25% correction could materialize, potentially pulling bitcoin down to roughly $73,000—not a price prediction, but a stark reminder of Bitcoin’s tether to the global money supply.” However, he also acknowledged that Bitcoin might defy this trend, as it has in the past, particularly “from 2022-2023 due to the FTX collapse and interest in the space evaporating as a result.”

He suggests that structural ETF inflows and corporate buying pressure could help Bitcoin resist the current M2 deflation. Consorti concludes, “Either way, a correction at this point seems about right. As mentioned before, these rapid run-ups in Bitcoin’s price always have pitstops along the way, […] it’s vital to understand the asset you hold, the macro environment it exists in, and the forces driving it higher long-term. If you truly understand bitcoin, you don’t panic sell.”

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Despite the cautious outlook, some analysts believe the dip may be short-lived. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, points out via X that “a Bitcoin bid has overshadowed tightening liquidity over the past month.” While acknowledging that Bitcoin appears “overstretched vs. global M2” and that his liquidity model suggested caution, especially with leverage, Coutts highlights potential policy shifts that could favor risk assets.

He references insights from economist Andreas Steno, indicating that the Federal Reserve is “in effect, discussing a put for USD liquidity—changes to support liquidity developments as early as December.” Coutts concludes: “DXY could have topped here. The lag effect that Fintwit is focused on atm is still real, but ultimately, the Fed is waving the bull flag for risk assets again. Bullish 2025. Bullish BTC.”

DXY topped here?
Has the DXY topped here? | Source: X @Jamie1Coutts

At press time, BTC traded at $93,250.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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