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Bitcoin To Hit $125,000 If Trump Wins: Standard Chartered
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Bitcoin To Hit $125,000 By Year-End If Trump Wins, Says Standard Chartered

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
7 months ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin price prediction Standard Chartered

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In a research paper dated October 24, Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the end of the year if former President Donald Trump secures victory in the upcoming US presidential election.

When Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000

Kendrick’s analysis hinges on the interplay between Bitcoin’s price movements and the US political landscape. “We use daily BTC vol levels and popular strike levels to estimate post-election price moves,” he states in the report titled Bitcoin – Post-US Election Playbook. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin prices have been ascending in recent weeks, aligning with other trades favored by Trump supporters.

The report forecasts that Bitcoin is likely to reach approximately $73,000 by Election Day on November 5, nearing its all-time high of $73,800 recorded in March. “Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win,” Kendrick notes.

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Betting markets are reflecting increasing confidence in a Trump victory. “The average betting odds of a Trump victory now stand at 59%, according to RealClearPolitics. Furthermore, conditional probabilities in specific betting markets (Polymarket) suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins the presidency,” the report highlights.

Should Trump win, Kendrick anticipates immediate bullish momentum for Bitcoin. “Assuming a Trump victory, options break-even implies a further price rise of about 4% when the presidential outcome is known, and around 10% in total within a few more days,” he explains.

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The potential for a Republican sweep of Congress amplifies this outlook. “If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target level of USD 125,000 should come into view,” Kendrick asserts. This scenario is underpinned by significant open interest in Bitcoin call options expiring on December 27 at the $80,000 strike price, suggesting rapid movement toward that level.

What If Harris Wins?

In contrast, if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, the report suggests a temporary setback for Bitcoin prices. “If Harris wins, we see BTC initially trading lower but still ending 2024 at fresh highs around $75,000,” Kendrick projects. This implies a resilient long-term outlook for Bitcoin regardless of the election outcome, though the magnitude of gains would differ.

Kendrick emphasizes the role of options market data in gauging potential price movements. “Options info helps estimate initial post-election price moves,” he states. The heavy trading volumes and popular strike levels serve as indicators of investor expectations and market positioning ahead of the election.

The recent dip in Bitcoin’s price to a local low of $65,200 was addressed as well. Kendrick believes this is “likely to be the last before the U.S. presidential election,” suggesting that any short-term corrections may be overshadowed by the impending political developments.

At press time, BTC traded at $67,520.

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BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Reason to trust

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