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Crypto researcher Axel has provided insights into why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are still crashing. This comes as BTC continues to see a supply overhang, which threatens to put more downward pressure on crypto prices.
Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Prices Are Still Crashing
In a research report, Axel noted that anomalous exchange inflows accompanied the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 zone as sellers prepared in advance. The market is also still at risk of further selling pressure as the 1.0 level of the short-term holders’ SOPR is now acting as a resistance rather than support. As such, there is a possibility that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices will decline further.
Further commenting on Bitcoin netflows into exchanges, Axel noted that between January 20 and 21, almost 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, coinciding with BTC dropping to as low as $87,000, while Ethereum and Solana prices also dropped. The crypto researcher explained that these anomalously high values followed a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of this month.
In the context of the falling Bitcoin price, Axel stated that such a spike is more likely to reflect supply preparation than neutral transfers. In other words, the breakdown below $90,000 appears to be structural rather than emotional. Meanwhile, Bitcoin netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still creates a supply overhang, which could lead to further declines in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
Axel noted that a signal of improvement would be if netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which could indicate that the overhang has cleared. However, with the short-term holders’ 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, the crypto researcher suggested that BTC faces increased selling pressure on every recovery as these holders look to sell at breakeven. He added that a reversal trigger could be confirmed if the SOPR breaks above 1.0 from below, with the 7-day SMA holding unity for three to five days to filter out false spikes after the selloff.
Why A Break Above $100,000 Looks Unlikely For Now
In its latest research report, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode explained that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks unlikely for now as the supply overhang persists. They noted how this overhang supply above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force capping short to mid-term rebounds.
Alluding to the Unspent Realized Price Distribution metric, Glassnode noted that the recent BTC rally has partially filled the prior air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, driven by redistribution from top buyers into newer market participants.
However, the unresolved supply overhang is expected to likely cap attempts above the $98,400 short-term holders’ cost basis and the $100,000 level. A meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum is said to be required for a clean breakout above $100,000 to occur.
