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A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Material Indicators
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A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Material Indicators

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
2 years ago
3 mins read
Crypto Holiday Special cover image

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2022 is coming to an end, and our staff at NewsBTC decided to launch this Crypto Holiday Special to provide some perspective on the crypto industry. We will talk with multiple guests to understand this year’s highs and lows for crypto.

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In the spirit of Charles Dicken’s classic, “A Christmas Carol,” we’ll look into crypto from different angles, look at its possible trajectory for 2023 and find common ground amongst these different views of an industry that might support the future of finances.

Over the last week, we spoke with institutions about their perception of 2022 and their outlook for the coming months. We’ll begin our experts round with Material Indicators, a market data, and analytics firm dedicated to building trading tools for the nascent sector.

Material Indicators: “While we have yet to see tradfi (Traditional Finances) price in earnings contraction (~Q1’23) for the last leg down, we are already close to bottoming sentiment-wise.”

Material Indicators and their team of analyst gauge market sentiment and liquidity and try to read between the lines of what big players are doing to provide a clear view, absent of noise, about its conditions and possible direction. This is what they told us:

Q: What’s the most significant difference for the crypto market today compared to Christmas 2021? Beyond the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others, what changed from that moment of euphoria to today’s perpetual fear? Has there been a decline in adoption and liquidity? Are fundamentals still valid?

A: The difference is striking! Since the FTX blowup, the influx of new people to Crypto Twitter has been reduced to a trickle. Salty Youtubers will now advise you to sell your remaining coins to avoid a total loss. Telegram communities have been shrinking. Big accounts who’ve been telling their followers to buy have either quit or rebranded. While we have yet to see tradfi (Traditional Finances) price in earnings contraction (~Q1’23) for the last leg down, we are already close to bottoming sentiment-wise.

Q: What are the dominant narratives driving this change in market conditions? And what should be the narrative today? What are most people overlooking? We saw a major crypto exchange blowing up, a hedge fund thought to be untouchable, and an ecosystem that promised a financial utopia. Is Crypto still the future of finance, or should the community pursue a new vision?

A: It’s the other way around. Conditions create narratives. Loose monetary policy and abundant cheap credit create bubbles and nurture fraud. It’s only after the tide recedes that we see who has been swimming naked. With an imminent rise in unemployment, people will try to hide in bonds, which actually improves credit-availability for risk assets. So, while earnings-driven assets will feel pain on higher unemployment, credit-driven assets (risk assets) will feel relatively less pain.

Q: If you must choose one, what do you think was a significant moment for crypto in 2022? And will the industry feel its consequences across 2023? Where do you see the industry next Christmas? Will it survive this winter? Mainstream is once again declaring the death of the industry. Will they finally get it right?

A: Terra/Luna was probably the catalyst for all the subsequent blowups and we have yet to see the full effects of contagion (DCG/Grayscale/Genesis are not fully resolved yet). As with any blowup, this will just invite more regulation that will neither protect investors, nor improve the potential for growth. We wanted institutional adoption and now we see that they had zero risk-management and gambled away their user funds.

Crypto holiday Material Indicators Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview

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Q: Finally, across social media, you guys at Material Indicators made your bearish bias public. Are you more or less pessimistic than you were at the beginning of 2022? And what will you like to see to shift your bias and lean towards the long side of the market? We know a lot depends on the Federal Reserve, are the chances of a pivot and lower interest rates hikes higher?

A: While we’re probably not quite out of the woods yet, we can already almost see the light. On poor earnings & poor forecasts bonds will likely catch a bid in Q1’23, and therefore make credit available to risk assets to dampen their fall or even help them recover (especially if the Treasury manages to relieve the RRP of its ~$2T idle liquidity). Bitcoin could also benefit from this as it’s only subject to credit-availability and not earnings. However, while inflation has been and will likely continue to fall for some time, it is unlikely that we’ve seen the last of it. So, keep an eye out for potentially re-surging inflation sometime in late-’23/early-’24.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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