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Ethereum Capitulation Nearing Its End? Key On-Chain Metric Reveals Insights
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Ethereum Capitulation Nearing Its End? Key On-Chain Metric Reveals Insights

Ash Tiwari
Ash Tiwari
1 month ago
3 mins read
ethereum

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According to a recent X post by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum (ETH) may have already gone through its capitulation phase for this market cycle. Notably, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down more than 55% over the past year.

Is Ethereum Capitulation Over?

Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and SUI, Ethereum has endured a challenging two-year stretch. The cryptocurrency was trading at $1,892 exactly two years ago, on April 11, 2023, and is now priced around $1,560 – over 17% lower.

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Is Ethereum Repeating Its 2020 Trend Reversal? Analyst Predicts ETH To ‘Explode’ In Q2 2025

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In contrast, BTC has surged from approximately $41,000 two years ago to $82,127 at the time of writing – an increase of nearly 100%. While SOL currently trades below its April 2023 price, unlike ETH, it did manage to reach a new all-time high (ATH) of $293 earlier this year in January.

Understandably, sentiment toward ETH – among both retail and institutional investors – is hovering near all-time lows. However, Martinez believes that “smart money” may be accumulating at current levels, anticipating a near-term reversal.

The analyst pointed out that Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow has recently dropped below one million. Martinez added:

This historically indicates a macro bottom zone, meaning $ETH might be undervalued and long-term holders are less inclined to sell. It also suggests: sentiment is low, capitulation may have occurred, smart money might be accumulating.

ali
Source: ali_charts on X

For the uninitiated, Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow is an on-chain metric that compares the market cap to the dormancy – the average age of ETH being moved – adjusted for unique entities instead of raw addresses. The metric helps identify whether the market is overheated or undervalued by tracking the behavior of long-term holders.

If ETH follows historical trends, it may be approaching a momentum reversal. In a separate X post, crypto trader Merlijn The Trader suggested that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is nearing a peak, which could shift capital into altcoins and trigger a short-term rally.

bitcoin dominance
Source: Merlijn The Trader on X

At the time of writing, BTC.D stands around 63.5%. A potential pivot by the US Federal Reserve toward quantitative easing (QE) could inject fresh liquidity into the market, possibly sparking a mini altcoin rally.

btc.d
Source: Bitcoin Dominance on TradingView.com

ETH Demands Cautious Optimism

While there are multiple signs that ETH may be close to bottoming out, some indicators suggest that there could be continued weakness for the digital asset before any meaningful momentum shift.

Related Reading

ethereum

Analyst Spots Key Ethereum Resistance Levels While RSI Hints At Bullish Divergence

2 months ago

In a recent analysis, Martinez warned that ETH could fall as low as $1,200 if the current sell-off continues. Further, ongoing capital outflows from US-based spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) remain a concern for the asset’s short-term outlook.

That said, crypto analyst NotWojak recently noted that ETH may be on the verge of a breakout, with a potential upside target of $1,835. At press time, ETH is trading at $1,557, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours.

ethereum
ETH trades at $1,557 on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from X and TradingView.com
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Ash Tiwari
Ash Tiwari

Ash Tiwari

Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.

Read more

Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.

In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.

A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.

When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.

Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.

Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.

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