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CME Traders Bet Big Against Bitcoin As US Fed Rate Cut Looms
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CME Traders Bet Big Against Bitcoin As US Fed Rate Cut Looms

Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme
8 months ago
3 mins read
CME Traders Bet Big Against Bitcoin as Fed Rate Decision Looms

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Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have been increasing their short positions on Bitcoin futures ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, according to K33 analyst David Zimmerman.

This move indicates a cautious approach in the market, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision later today by 2 pm ET

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The Looming Rate Cut And The Beforemath

So far, current market sentiment points towards a 50 basis-point rate cut, a significant change from the usual monetary policy. This would be the first-rate reduction in four years, causing market participants to brace for potential volatility.

Zimmerman noted that CME traders have notably increased their short positions by 5,500 BTC over the past two days, pushing futures premiums to a nine-month low. This trend suggests a shift towards bearish sentiment on Bitcoin in anticipation of the FOMC’s decision.

Additionally, the CME futures market is reflecting fears of heightened volatility, similar to what occurred following the recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

According to Zimmerman, the “downward sloping futures premiums” on CME, now below 5% for the first time since January 15, indicate “hedging against potential risks” associated with the FOMC meeting.

Implications Of Interest Rate Cuts On Bitcoin

Zimmerman pointed out that although rate cuts usually relief market conditions and may enhance liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin, worries about a possible economic downturn remain.

The analyst mentioned that the anticipated 50 basis-point cut has amplified these concerns. Historical precedents show that such a significant reduction, like those in 2001 and 2007, heightened recession fears.

Currently, with real interest rates at their cyclical highs and inflation cooling, the Federal Reserve may consider swift cuts to reach a “neutral rate”—a rate that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy, Zimmerman suggested.

The analyst added, noting: “Currently, 125 basis points in cuts are expected by the end of the year.”

Currently, Bitcoin trades at $59,415, at the time of writing down by 2.7% in the past day. Despite the bearish sentiment from CME traders, several analysts are optimistic that the fed rate cut will be positive for Bitcoin.

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For instance, renowned crypto analyst known as Moustache on X has recently pointed to a notable bullish pattern on BTC chart, suggesting that the upcoming FOMC decision could assist the pattern in playing out completely.

#Bitcoin (W)

Most exciting FOMC meeting of the year and the chart of $BTC looks like this.

Descending broadening wedge for 6 months.
In the past, these patterns have ALWAYS been bullish.

RSI is a leading indicator and has already broken out of the downtrend. pic.twitter.com/zbHNIM5vfc

— 𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 (@el_crypto_prof) September 18, 2024

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Read more

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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