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Winner Takes All: Bitcoin And DXY Compete For Global Financial Dominance
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Winner Takes All: Bitcoin And DXY Compete For Global Financial Dominance

Ronaldo Marquez
Ronaldo Marquez
2 years ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) have been battling for supremacy in the financial world, with both assets vying for dominance in a zero-sum game. The recent volatility seen in the markets is a testament to the intensity of this battle. It is becoming increasingly clear that the outcome of this showdown will have significant implications for both assets and the financial world.

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How Bitcoin Plans To Take On The Dollar

According to JJ the Janitor, an analyst at Jarvis Labs, any decline in the dollar’s value is good for Bitcoin, and vice versa. This means that the two assets are competing for the same market share, and whichever one comes out on top will dictate the market’s direction for the rest of 2023.

Bitcoin
BTC and DXY chart comparison. Source: JJ the Janitor.

As JJ the Janitor notes, DXY has held above the crucial line of support at 100.80 since April 15. This has created market tension, as BTC and DXY have been consolidating in tightly compressed ranges. However, this month-long structure will break sooner or later, and both assets will enter into price discovery – one to the upside, the other to the downside.

One notable thing about DXY, according to JJ the Janitor, is that since it peaked during March’s banking crisis, it has been unable to sustain any technical momentum. As a result, it has now registered six lower highs since March’s peak of 105.90, a strong confirmation that it is indeed stuck in a downtrend.

For JJ,  if the dollar’s yearly low fails to hold upon retest, and if that failure sends DXY crashing below 100 without relief, it would create an ideal set-up for Bitcoin to make a series of higher highs this summer. This would be good news for BTC investors, who have eagerly anticipated a market breakout.

Furthermore, The market structure of the DXY is beginning to resemble a pattern that Bitcoin displayed in the spring of 2022, according to JJ the Janitor. Moreover, JJ compared the current market structure of DXY to a chart pattern that BTC displayed last spring, which ultimately led to a collapse in the market.

BTC Faces Risk Of Collapse Similar To Last Year’s Death Spiral?

As JJ notes, just after the death spiral of LUNA and UST last year, Bitcoin appeared to be holding up surprisingly well while altcoins were collapsing. However, this resilience was short-lived, as BTC ultimately succumbed to a “head and shoulders” chart pattern and collapsed after the death spiral of LUNA caused CeFi exchanges like Celsius and BlockFi to go under.

Bitcoin
DXY head and shoulders pattern. Source: JJ the Janitor.

As seen above, DXY shows a similar head and shoulders pattern below resistance, which could signal a potentially disastrous outcome for the asset. This pattern is a bearish technical indicator that suggests a potential reversal of the current trend.

However, there is a scenario in which the dollar could regain strength and spoil Bitcoin’s hope for new highs this summer. JJ the Janitor, suggests that if DXY were to move above the May high at 102.53 and then reconquer its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, it would be a clear signal for the market to go “risk-off.” This would be a sign of strength for the dollar and could result in Bitcoin crashing into another retest of its 200-day moving average.

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $27,100, just below its 50-day moving average, indicating a notable decline of over 3.5% in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s market volatility has increased liquidations of both short and long positions, with Coinglass data indicating a peak of $174 million in the last 24 hours.

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Bitcoin
BTC downtrend on the 1-day chart. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Ronaldo Marquez
Ronaldo Marquez

Ronaldo Marquez

Ronaldo is an experienced crypto enthusiast dedicated to the nascent and ever-evolving industry. With over five years of extensive research and unwavering dedication, he has cultivated a profound interest in the world of cryptocurrencies.

Read more

Ronaldo's journey began with a spark of curiosity, which soon transformed into a deep passion for understanding the intricacies of this groundbreaking technology.

Driven by an insatiable thirst for knowledge, Ronaldo has delved into the depths of the crypto space, exploring its various facets, from blockchain fundamentals to market trends and investment strategies. His tireless exploration and commitment to staying up-to-date with the latest developments have granted him a unique perspective on the industry.

One of Ronaldo's defining areas of expertise lies in technical analysis. He firmly believes that studying charts and deciphering price movements provides valuable insights into the market. Ronaldo recognizes that patterns exist within the chaos of crypto charts, and by utilizing technical analysis tools and indicators, he can unlock hidden opportunities and make informed investment decisions. His dedication to mastering this analytical approach has allowed him to navigate the volatile crypto market with confidence and precision.

Ronaldo's commitment to his craft goes beyond personal gain. He is passionate about sharing his knowledge and insights with others, empowering them to make well-informed decisions in the crypto space. Ronaldo's writing is a testament to his dedication, providing readers with meaningful analysis and up-to-date news. He strives to offer a comprehensive understanding of the crypto industry, helping readers navigate its complexities and seize opportunities.

Outside of the crypto realm, Ronaldo enjoys indulging in other passions. As an avid sports fan, he finds joy in watching exhilarating sporting events, witnessing the triumphs and challenges of athletes pushing their limits. Furthermore, His passion for languages extends beyond mere communication; he aspires to master German, French, Italian, and Portuguese, in addition to his native Spanish. Recognizing the value of linguistic proficiency, Ronaldo aims to enhance his work prospects, personal relationships, and overall growth.

However, Ronaldo's aspirations extend far beyond language acquisition. He believes that the future of the crypto industry holds immense potential as a groundbreaking force in history. With unwavering conviction, he envisions a world where cryptocurrencies unlock financial freedom for all and become catalysts for societal development and growth. Ronaldo is determined to prepare himself for this transformative era, ensuring he is well-equipped to navigate the crypto landscape.

Ronaldo also recognizes the importance of maintaining a healthy body and mind, regularly hitting the gym to stay physically fit. He immerses himself in books and podcasts that inspire him to become the best version of himself, constantly seeking new ways to expand his horizons and knowledge.

With a genuine desire to become the best version of himself, Ronaldo is committed to continuous improvement. He sets personal goals, embraces challenges, and seeks opportunities for growth and self-reflection. Ultimately, combining his passion for cryptocurrencies, dedication to learning, and commitment to personal development, Ronaldo aims to go hand-in-hand with the exciting new era that the emerging crypto technology is bringing to the world and societies.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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