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This Late-Stage Bitcoin Bull Run Signal Hasn't Shown Up Yet
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

This Late-Stage Bitcoin Bull Run Signal Hasn’t Shown Up Yet

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
2 weeks ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Binary CDD is yet to reach the same peak as during the last few tops in the cryptocurrency’s price.

30-Day MA Of Bitcoin Binary CDD Is Currently Sitting Around 0.6

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the Binary CDD for Bitcoin. The “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD) refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the total number of ‘coin days’ being reset across the network.

A coin day is a quantity that one token of the cryptocurrency accumulates after having stayed dormant on the blockchain for one day. When a coin that was previously still for some number of days is moved across the network, its coin days counter naturally resets back to zero, and the coin days that it had accumulated are said to be ‘destroyed.’

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Whenever the CDD registers a large spike, it’s a sign that dormant hands on the network are on the move. Generally, the long-term holders only break their silence when they plan to sell, so this kind of trend can prove to be bearish for BTC.

The Binary CDD, the actual indicator of interest in the current discussion, makes it easier to identify whether the current HODLer transaction activity is significant or not when compared to the past.

As its name already suggests, this metric can take on two values: 0 and 1. The Binary CDD is equal to 0 when the CDD is below the historical average and 1 when it’s above.

Note that since the indicator is making a historical comparison, it adds another weighting factor to the CDD: an adjustment with respect to the total circulating supply at the time. This is done because the asset’s supply is going up with time.

Now, here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Binary CDD over the last few years:

Bitcoin Binary CDD
The 30-day MA of the metric appears to have been on the rise in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant

As is visible in the above graph, the 30-day MA Bitcoin Binary CDD has been following an upward trajectory recently, implying long-term holders are potentially becoming more active. The increase in the indicator has come as BTC has started on a fresh rally that has taken its price near the all-time high (ATH).

While the long-term holders tend to be resolute entities, they do still come out to take their profits during significant runs. As such, the recent trend in the 30-day MA of the Binary CDD may not be too surprising.

Following the latest continuation to the rise, the metric has hit the 0.60 mark (if the fact that this value is different from the 0 and 1 of the Binary CDD is confusing, consider that this is just an average over 30 days, which would almost always be between these two extremes).

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As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, this value is still below the 0.80 level that the indicator breached during both the rally highs from last year, as well as during the euphoria phase of the 2021 bull run.

Given this pattern, it’s possible that the current Bitcoin rally could still have room to grow, at least from the perspective of HODLer distribution.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $102,300, up over 3% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin seems to have been consolidating recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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