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Is Bitcoin Now Overheating? Key Metrics Reveal Crucial Insights For Investors
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Is Bitcoin Now Overheating? Key Metrics Reveal Crucial Insights For Investors

Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme
6 months ago
3 mins read
Is Bitcoin Now Overheating? Key Metrics Reveal Crucial Insights for Investors

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Amid Bitcoin’s pursuit to hit the six figures all-time high (ATH), a CryptoQuant analyst known as aytekin, has shared a comprehensive analysis on tools to assess Bitcoin’s market temperature, focusing on distinguishing useful from potentially misleading metrics.

According to aytekin, investors’ concerns often center around Bitcoin’s ability to reach new peaks and when it might experience a market top. To navigate these questions, he highlighted two charts he pays less attention to for gauging market sentiment: “open interest” and the “supply in profit” metric.

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Challenges With BTC Key Metrics

The analyst elaborated that establishing a causal link between price and open interest remains challenging, as historical data indicates that price fluctuations tend to drive changes in open interest levels rather than the reverse.

Furthermore, the analyst reveals that with the growth of futures markets and Bitcoin’s adoption, higher levels of open interest are anticipated in the coming years.

Bitcoin Open interest.
Bitcoin Open interest. | Source: CryptoQuant

Another metric aytekin views as potentially misleading is the “supply in profit,” which measures overall network profitability. This metric correlates with Bitcoin’s nominal price, often leading to extreme spikes above 95% in profitability during ATH periods.

BTC Supply in profit.
BTC Supply in profit. | Source: CryptoQuant

However, aytekin suggests that reaching new highs would be problematic if extreme profitability consistently triggered major sell-offs. Instead, he recommends considering how long these high-profitability levels persist, noting that historically, such conditions have lasted up to a year within broader market cycles.

Credible Metric Suggests Overheating Bitcoin?

In contrast, the analyst emphasized two metrics he finds valuable for tracking Bitcoin’s market sentiment: the funding rate and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The funding rate, which tracks the cost paid between long and short positions in futures markets, serves as a tool to identify “overzealous” market optimism.

BTC funding rate.
BTC funding rate. | Source: CryptoQuant

Aytekin believes monitoring this metric offers better insights than open interest for assessing market conditions. As of now, he notes that funding rates are not signaling extreme market behavior.

The analyst reveals that the SOPR metric clarifies profitability trends, particularly when smoothed using a 30-day moving average.

BTC SOPR.
BTC SOPR. | Source: CryptoQuant

Aytekin highlights that profitability alone is not inherently risky unless it coincides with supply movements within the market. The CryptoQuant analyst reveals that current SOPR levels indicate a market that, while showing signs of profitability, does not exhibit symptoms of overheating.

Related Reading

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Bitcoin Could Be Ready For ‘Phase 2’ Of This Historical Bull Pattern

6 months ago

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been trading for $81,838, up by 2.4% in the past day. This trading price marks a 0.6% decline from the asset’s ATH of $82,379 created earlier today.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

When writing, the asset’s market capitalization sits above $1.6 billion with a 24-hour trading volume of  $90.6 billion.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Read more

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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