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Is A Bitcoin (BTC) Negative Correlation With Stocks A Bullish Signal? Analyst Reveals 
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Is A Bitcoin (BTC) Negative Correlation With Stocks A Bullish Signal? Analyst Reveals 

Sebastian Villafuerte
Sebastian Villafuerte
9 months ago
3 mins read
bitcoin btc btcusdt

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Bitcoin (BTC) and U.S. stocks have shown a negative correlation lately, with Bitcoin often moving in the opposite direction of traditional markets. This divergence has caught the attention of analysts and investors, especially as the cryptocurrency enters a period of consolidation along with the broader crypto market. Historically, shifts in this correlation—from negative to positive—have often signaled a bullish trend for Bitcoin. 

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As both markets face challenges, the changing dynamics between BTC and U.S. stocks could provide crucial insights into where the market is headed. Investors are closely watching this relationship, anticipating that a shift could indicate a potential breakout for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Data Suggests Potential Uptrend

The negative correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 (SPX), has become increasingly evident. Prominent analyst and trader Daan on X recently highlighted this phenomenon by overlaying the BTC/USDT futures chart with SPX prices.

His analysis shows that while traditional markets like the SPX have experienced a swift recovery, Bitcoin has not followed suit. This divergence underscores the decoupling between these two markets, with Bitcoin lagging behind the broader stock recovery.

BTC/USDT overlayed with SPX
BTC daily chart overlayed with S&P 500. | Source: Daan on X BTC/USDT chart on TradingView

Another key analyst, Caleb Franzen, brought attention to this trend, sharing data revealing Bitcoin’s negative correlation with major stock indices. Specifically, Franzen points out that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ) currently stands at -27%. This negative correlation suggests that as tech stocks recover, Bitcoin has been moving in the opposite direction, which can signify unique market dynamics.

BTC 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 $QQQ is -27%.
BTC’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 $QQQ is -27%. | Source: Caleb Franzen on X BTC/USD correlation with $QQQ on TradingView

While periods of negative correlation between Bitcoin and stocks are not inherently bullish, historical evidence suggests that positive market shifts often follow such phases. The critical point for investors is to monitor a potential reversal of this correlation—when Bitcoin begins to move in tandem with the Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ) once again.

If Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks turns positive, it could signal a strengthening market and a possible uptrend for BTC. This shift could provide a key indicator for timing potential entry points in the market.

BTC Price Trading Below A Key Indicator

Bitcoin trades at $59,350, below the critical daily 200-day moving average (MA) at $62,915. This moving average is a key indicator many analysts use to gauge market trends. When BTC’s price is below the daily 200 MA, it typically suggests a downtrend or a significant correction. Conversely, trading above this level indicates market strength and bullish momentum.

Bitcoin trading below the 1D 200 MA. | Source: BTC/USD 1D chart on TradingView
BTC is trading below the 1D 200 MA. | Source: BTC/USD 1D chart on TradingView

For Bitcoin to confirm the continuation of its bull market, it needs to reclaim the daily 200 MA and consistently close above it. This would signal a potential shift in trend, providing confidence to traders and investors that the bullish phase is still intact.

Currently, BTC is hovering around the key psychological level of $60,000, and the market remains in a consolidation phase after enduring months of uncertainty and volatility.

For the bullish scenario to unfold, Bitcoin must break above $63,000, retaking the daily 200 MA and surpassing the August 8th local high of $62,729. This would mark a significant recovery and indicate that the market is regaining its strength.

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On the other hand, if BTC fails to close above $57,500 in the coming days, it could signal further downside pressure, potentially leading to a pullback to sub-$50,000 levels. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its upward momentum or if more bearish pressure lies ahead.

Cover image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.

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Sebastian Villafuerte
Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies.

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To share his insights with others, Sebastian became an active contributor to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn. His focus on fintech and crypto-related topics quickly established him as a trusted voice in the online crypto community. Sebastian's goal was to educate and inform his audience about the latest trends and insights in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology.

Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K reports, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance.

Sebastian's journey as a crypto pioneer has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable contributor to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and helping to shape the future of this revolutionary technology.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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