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Historical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000—Here’s When
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Historical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000—Here’s When

Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme
9 months ago
3 mins read
Historical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000

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Bitcoin has continued to see a blend of bulls and bears without any major high achieved since its renewed peak above $73,000 in March. So far, the asset has ranged below $60,000 in the past week, as it appears to face resistance whenever it reaches that price mark.

However, several analysts and experts share their optimistic outlook on top crypto despite this. Sminston With, a prominent Bitcoin researcher, recently offered an interesting forecast on BTC based on a detailed examination of the asset’s price trajectory over past bull cycles.

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Decoding Bitcoin’s ‘Decaying Peaks’

Shared in a post on Elon Musk’s social media platform, X, With’s analysis draws from the peak periods of Bitcoin in 2011, 2013, and 2017 to project future possibilities for this leading cryptocurrency.

The concept used in the analysis, “decaying peaks,” refers to the progressively lower returns seen in successive Bitcoin bull runs as the market matures and gains wider acceptance.

This phenomenon is captured through an analysis known as the “exponential decay fit,” which Is employed to evaluate the peaks of Bitcoin’s past bull cycles by aligning the historical data points of 2011, 2013, and 2017, With aimed to delineate a pattern that could suggest future price movements.

I wanted to highlight a study looking at the decaying peaks of the #BTC price residuals from each cycle (this is what is used to build the Decay Channel and also the Oscillator).

Here I simply did an exponential decay fit of the max residuals (price / .05 quantile power law… pic.twitter.com/dKv60ajL1j

— Sminston With (@sminston_with) August 12, 2024

In his study, the analyst applied this model to the 2021 cycle peak, yielding a forecast close to market behavior. The model predicted a peak of $65,732.72, closely shadowing the actual peak of $64,682.47, highlighting the potential reliability of this analytical approach.

Decay peak Bitcoin prediction.
Decay peak prediction. | Source: Sminston With on X

Towards A $164,000 Bitcoin By 2025?

Now extending his analytical framework to the upcoming cycles, he ventured a bold prediction for the 2024-2025 period.

The estimation of the decaying peaks model sketches an ambitious trajectory that could see Bitcoin reaching as high as $164,000. This projection is based on continuing patterns observed in BTC’s past market behaviors.

Related Reading

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9 months ago

However, caution is required to consider these predictions with skepticism due to the limited data set—only four market cycles have been analyzed to date. The analyst noted:

The precise exponential decay of the tops (against the power law support) is worth taking with a big grain of salt (we only have 4 data points now), but this is definitely worth paying attention to as we move through the current cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving sideways on the 1-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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Samuel Edyme
Samuel Edyme

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Read more

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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