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According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, what used to be a near‑perfect four‑year Bitcoin pattern now looks less reliable. Supply cuts, rate moves and crash risks once drove big swings. Now, fresh forces are taking over.
Halving’s Impact Shrinks Every Cycle
Hougan points out that each Bitcoin halving still cuts new coins by 50% but matters less over time. In early cycles, that shock fueled parabolic runs.
Today, with a market cap in the hundreds of billions, the same supply cut is half as important every four years. Back in 2016 and 2020, prices jumped more than 150% around halving events. Now, moves hover under 50% in similar windows.
Based on analysis from the Bitwise CIO, interest rates have been friendlier this time around. In 2018 and 2022, tightening by the US Federal Reserve coincided with brutal crypto drops that sent Bitcoin down 72% and 69% from peak to trough. Now, rates are easing or on pause, so crypto often trades up rather than down.
Why is the four-year cycle dead?
1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker:
i) The halving is half as important every four years;
ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022);
iii) Blow-up risk is… https://t.co/F9ybjHEeB5
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025
Institutional Trends Outrun Old Rhythms
Hougan highlights that ETFs are the new growth engine—and they run on a 5–10 year timeline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and have since taken in over $10 billion in net inflows. That steady stream can’t be pinned to a single four‑year blip.
Pensions and endowments are getting ready too. Many big investors only started talking crypto last year, and it takes quarters or years for them to clear internal hurdles. When they finally jump in, their billions could reshape markets far beyond retail waves.
🚨DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???
The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we’re going higher in 2026.
Early profit takers will be left behind!!!
Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments👇 pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN
— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025
Regulation Gains Traction This Year
According to Hougan, regulatory clarity began in January 2025 with new custody rules, tax guidelines and licensing regimes. Those steps cut systemic risk and pave the way for banks and asset managers to roll out crypto services on their platforms.
Based on his analysis, the recent Genius Act—passed this month—opened doors on prime‑broker platforms. That means trading desks, clearing houses and research teams can invest billions in weeks and months. This kind of build‑out takes time, but it lasts.
Treasury Firms Emerge As A Wild Card
One fresh cyclical‑style risk Hougan flags is the rise of Treasury companies offering short‑term lending and yield products. If they grow too fast without proper checks, a blow‑up could still trigger a market sell‑off. It’s a new kind of hazard that didn’t exist in past cycles.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
