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Bitcoin Top Here? What Historical HODLer Selloff Pattern Says
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Bitcoin Top Here? What Historical HODLer Selloff Pattern Says

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
5 months ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders are selling. Here’s whether the current level of selloff is enough for a price top or not.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Selling Big Recently

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about the historical trend in the holdings of the long-term holders relative to the Bitcoin top. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for more than 155 days.

The LTHs represent one of the two main divisions of the BTC market done on the basis of holding time, with the other group being known as the short-term holders (STHs).

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Bitcoin Top Here? What Historical HODLer Selloff Pattern Says

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Historically, the latter cohort has proven to contain the weak hands of the market, while the former is made up of the HODLers who barely react to rallies and crashes in the price.

As such, selling from the STHs is usually not of any note, but that from the LTHs can be, as it’s not a particularly common event. One way to keep track of the behavior of the diamond hands is through their Net Position Change.

The Net Position Change is an on-chain metric that measures the total amount of Bitcoin entering into or exiting out of the LTH cohort. Below is the chart for the indicator shared by the analyst that shows the trend in its value over the history of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change
The value of the metric appears to be deep red at the moment | Source: @ali_charts on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change has witnessed a sharp decline into the negative territory in recent weeks, which implies a net amount of supply has been leaving the cohort.

This isn’t the first time this year that the indicator has shown this trend, as something similar was also observed back during the first quarter of this year. In the chart, Martinez has highlighted this and the other older instances of this trend occurring.

It would seem that the major selloffs from the LTHs have generally coincided with some sort of top in the cryptocurrency. “Interestingly, in 2017 and 2021, their biggest sell-offs occurred right before the final leg up,” notes the analyst.

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Thus, if the current bull market is going to show anything similar, then it’s possible that the current LTH selloff may in fact only be the start of that final leg up that’s going to lead to the cyclical top for Bitcoin.

The indicator is also currently not as negative as during the largest red spikes of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, which could be another indication that the top isn’t in just yet. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the same pattern would repeat this time as well or not.

BTC Price

Bitcoin is back in all-time high (ATH) discovery mode as its price has just set a new record above the $107,000 milestone.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has been enjoying bullish momentum recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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