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Analyst Spots Bitcoin Time Bomb Hidden In Bullish Weekly Chart

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 month ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin price news

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In a post on 27 June, crypto-market chartist Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX) warned that Bitcoin’s ostensibly bullish weekly structure may be concealing a latent “time bomb” that could detonate if bulls fail to force a decisive breakout over the next three to four weeks. The technician’s diagnosis hinges on a classic Ichimoku paradox: an expanding bullish kumo and a flat Kijun Sen on the weekly timeframe are clustering with a constellation of bearish warnings on the daily and two-day charts.

Bitcoin Faces A July Time Bomb

“Look at the weekly kumo: it’s expanding, widening,” Dr Cat began. “This means that bullish momentum is building for potential trend sustainability even though the trend is not active as Kijun Sen is flat.” The observation is significant because an enlarging kumo—formed by the Senkou Span A/B envelope—generally represents thickening support, making sudden breakdowns statistically less probable as long as the cloud keeps widening.

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At the same time, the Chikou Span (CS) is “above the candles without a gap,” but, Dr Cat cautioned, it has “4 weeks deadline to close above ATH or will enter the candles.” Should the lagging line be absorbed back into price, the textbook interpretation is a loss of bullish conviction at the largest visible scale.

Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: X @DoctorCatX

That ostensibly constructive weekly backdrop contrasts starkly with a “lot of red flags on the daily hinting for a bearish scenario which can escalate on many levels.” Among those alarms is the prospect of a death TK cross on the two-day chart, anticipated “tonight,” in which the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen—often the prelude to a down-leg when it materialises beneath the cloud. “So how do you interpret such conflicting information from different timeframes?” the analyst asked rhetorically, underscoring that traders who privilege only a single interval risk being blindsided.

Dr Cat’s answer is a roadmap defined by time. Because the weekly cloud continues expanding, “it is hard for the price to dump a lot” immediately; historically, the kumo “needs first to become flat.” The flattening mechanism is mechanical: if Bitcoin fails to record a fresh all-time high “in 2 weeks from now,” roughly by the week that begins 14 July, the leading Senkou Span A numerator will stop rising, truncating cloud expansion. That in turn opens a window for gravity to reassert itself on the higher timeframe.

Against that backdrop the analyst offered two conditional trajectories. First scenario: bearish signals on the lower charts mature. “The price will likely need at least 1.5 month or so for a very big dump on the weekly scale, because the weekly kumo will keep expanding for 2 more weeks,” Dr Cat wrote.

During that holding period the market could “range around / just do small dumps to the $90s,” a reference to the high–$90 000 zone that has defined range lows since late spring. Should this grind continue beyond the second half of July without a structural shift on daily Ichimoku metrics, weekly momentum would invert: the kumo would cease expanding and the CS would dive into prior candles, removing two of the most durable layers of longer-term support.

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Second scenario: bulls seize the initiative. To “save the chart from the warning signs,” buyers must engineer “a higher high above the $110,600 high shortly after the 27th of June,” thereby invalidating the bearish daily setup and re-energising the top-down trend. Time is critical: after “the week starting on 14th of July,” the CS will approach prior candlesticks, making each subsequent failure to print a new high proportionally more damaging.

Dr Cat locates a final decision node on “the Sunday of the week starting on the 14th of July”—20 July—when the interplay between a stalling cloud and an in-candle CS could arm an additional set of “red flags for bulls.”

The post stops short of assigning explicit probability weightings to either outcome, but its construction implies that the market’s most consequential catalyst in mid-summer may not be macro data or ETF flows so much as a self-reflexive technical countdown visible to every chart-watcher who uses Ichimoku. With roughly three weeks remaining before the cloud loses upward curvature, participants must choose between forcing a breakout above $110,600 or bracing for a higher-time-frame correction that could test sub-$100 000 territory.

Whether Bitcoin’s expanding cloud proves a shield or a trap is, by Dr Cat’s own framing, “hidden in plain sight.” For now, the bullish weekly silhouette buys bulls breathing-room, but the daily and two-day warnings ensure that every hour the asset trades side-ways the theoretical time bomb ticks louder.

At press time, BTC traded at $106,778.

Bitcoin price
BTC hovers above the EMA20, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

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