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Breaking News: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000

Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal?

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: January 28, 2026 10:30 pm
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Loss indicator has witnessed a shift in direction that has often led into bearish phases in past cycles.

365-Day SMA Of The Bitcoin Supply In Loss Has Been Rising Recently

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Supply in Loss has started to trend up again. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total BTC circulating supply that’s currently being held at some net unrealized loss.

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The indicator works by scanning through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at which it was last transacted on the network. If this previous transaction value for any coin was greater than the latest spot price, then the metric assumes that particular token to be underwater.

The Supply in Loss adds up all coins falling in this category and finds what part of the supply they make up for. A counterpart metric known as the Supply in Profit tracks the supply of the opposite type. Since the total supply must add up to a 100%, however, the Supply in Profit is simply equal to the Supply in Loss subtracted from 100.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Supply in Loss over the cryptocurrency’s history:

Bitcoin Supply in Loss
The value of the metric appears to have been going up in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the 365-day SMA Bitcoin Supply in Loss plummeted to the lowest point for the cycle back in October. This plunge came as the asset rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) beyond the $126,000 level.

Since the low, however, the indictor has witnessed a rapid climb, a consequence of the bearish momentum that BTC has faced following its ATH. So far, the indicator hasn’t risen to a significant level compared to past capitulation levels, but the change in direction has been solidifying itself.

“Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets, when losses begin to spread beyond short-term holders and gradually reach longer-term participants,” explained the quant. From the chart, it’s visible that bearish transitions in past cycles occurred as the indicator shot up, with a high value in it coinciding with the cycle bottom.

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Whether the recent reversal in the Supply in Loss is the beginning of something similar only remains to be seen. Earlier in this cycle, an upward turn in the indicator ended up only being temporary, as the H1-2025 drawdown gave way to renewed bullish momentum rather than a prolonged bear phase.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, up over 1% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin seems to have rebounded since its low | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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