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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Bitcoin Supply In Loss Nears 20%: Could This Trigger A Fresh Surge?

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
11 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin supply in loss has shot up close to the 20% mark after the recent bearish action in the coin’s price.

Bitcoin UTXO Supply In Loss Has Seen A Sharp Increase Recently

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr talked about the recent trend in the Bitcoin Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Supply in Loss indicator. The “UTXO Supply in Loss” measures, as its name suggests, the total percentage of UTXOs in existence (or more simply, just the tokens) that are being held at some net unrealized loss.

The indicator works by going through the on-chain history of each UTXO in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. Generally, the last transfer of any token represents the last point that it changed hands, so the price at its time can be assumed to be its cost basis.

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When this cost basis for any UTXO is greater than the current spot price of the cryptocurrency, then that particular UTXO can be assumed to be underwater right now. The UTXO Supply in Loss adds up all UTXOs satisfying this condition to find what percentage of the total supply that they make up for. Like this metric, there also exists the UTXO Supply in Profit, which naturally keeps track of the UTXOs of the opposite type.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin UTXO Supply in Loss over the history of the asset:

Bitcoin UTXO Supply in Loss
The value of the metric appears to have seen a significant increase in recent days | Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin UTXO Supply in Loss registered a sharp plunge to the zero mark (note that the chart is reversed as it uses a negative scale) when the cryptocurrency’s price set its all-time high (ATH) back in March of this year. Whenever BTC sets a new record, 100% of the investors get into profits, so the UTXO Supply in Loss shrinking down to zero is only natural. As the coin has witnessed bearish momentum in the last few months, though, the metric’s value has gone through an increase again.

The 90-day moving average (MA) of the indicator, which is also listed in the chart, has now come close to the 20% mark. The CryptoQuant author has marked in the graph the previous instances of the metric making a similar retest of this level.

“In previous cycles, similar conditions were sometimes followed by a price rally,” notes Axel. Thus, it’s possible that a price surge may follow for Bitcoin this time as well.

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As for why the UTXO Supply in Loss going up can be bullish for Bitcoin, the reason is that the investors in profit are the ones more likely to participate in selling, so whenever their number reduces, the chances of a selloff also go down.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had shown some recovery beyond the $64,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the asset couldn’t maintain as it’s back at $62,500 now.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin hasn’t been able to make much recovery recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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