Bitcoin is currently trading at $76,899, marking a 3.7% decline in the past 24 hours and a 29.4% drop from its all-time high above $109,000 recorded in January.
After falling below $80,000 on Sunday, the digital asset has struggled to reclaim upward momentum, reflecting persistent selling pressure in the broader crypto market.
While price action continues to dominate headlines, on-chain data reveals deeper shifts in market dynamics. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Onchained highlights a notable transition in Bitcoin ownership patterns.
Bitcoin Short-Term Losses and Long-Term Accumulation
In the post titled “Short-Term Capitulation Meets Long-Term Conviction: A Structural Shift in Bitcoin Ownership,” the analyst identified structural changes between short-term and long-term holders, providing insights into the asset’s underlying market behavior.
According to the insight, Bitcoin has seen a ~15% drawdown from $88,000 to $74,400 over the past week. On April 7, Short-Term Holders (STH) realized a significant $10 billion drop in their realized cap—a metric reflecting the price at which coins were last moved—marking their largest single-day loss of the cycle.
This decline was met with an almost equivalent $9.7 billion increase in Long-Term Holders’ (LTH) realized cap, suggesting a substantial transfer of coins from recent buyers to more experienced holders.
By April 8, realized losses from STHs declined to $693 million, indicating a possible exhaustion of panic selling. In contrast, LTHs continued increasing their cost basis by an additional $1.13 billion, reflecting ongoing accumulation despite minimal price recovery.
Onchained interprets this as a typical sign of supply transitioning from weaker hands to those with higher conviction, which has historically occurred near market bottoms or early recovery stages.
The analyst noted: “This is not merely a coincidence: this is the market transferring coins from weak to strong hands.” Adding:
Long-term investors are stepping in with conviction: buying weakness and absorbing supply. – This behavior has historically marked the late stages of corrections or the early phase of recovery.
Potential Impact on Market Structure
This divergence between STH and LTH behavior may hold broader implications for Bitcoin’s market structure. As STHs reduce their holdings, potential short-term sell pressure and overhead resistance may decline. At the same time, rising accumulation by LTHs suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even amid current volatility.
Historically, similar patterns have preceded stabilization or trend reversals. A shrinking supply in the hands of reactive traders coupled with consistent buying by long-term participants can form the foundation for renewed price support.
Whether this shift signals the end of the current correction or an early stage of recovery remains to be confirmed, but on-chain trends continue to suggest meaningful repositioning within the Bitcoin market.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView