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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market

Bitcoin Options Traders Don’t Expect Volatility: Contrarian Signal Brewing?

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 week ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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Bitcoin options markets are showing a low volatility expectation, something that has actually preceded sharp price action in the past.

Bitcoin Options ATM IV Has Been Going Down Recently

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Options At-The-Money Implied Volatility.

Implied Volatility (IV) refers to an indicator that measures how volatile BTC is expected to be in the future, based on the pricing of Options contracts. At-The-Money (ATM) IV, the version of the metric of interest here, specifically calculates this expectation for the contracts that have their strike price closest to the asset’s current spot price.

The “strike price” is the predetermined price at which the holder of an options contract can choose to buy (in the case of a call or bullish bet) or sell (put or bearish bet) the underlying asset.

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Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Options ATM IV for all expiry timeframes:

Bitcoin ATM IV
The value of the metric appears to have been going down across all tenors | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 32, 2025

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Options ATM IV has been following a downtrend since a while now, indicating the traders aren’t expecting near-term volatility.

If the past is anything to go by, though, BTC could go against these traders. “Historically, such subdued volatility expectations have often preceded sharp market moves, making them a potential contrarian indicator,” explains Glassnode.

From the chart, it’s visible that such a contraction in Bitcoin Options ATM IV also occurred back in 2023 and what followed back then was a bull rally for the cryptocurrency. It now remains to be seen whether volatility in either direction would also follow this compression.

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ATM contracts aren’t the only one expecting low volatility. According to the report, Deribit‘s DVOL index, which tracks a 30-day IV measure for all strike prices, has dropped to historically low levels recently.

Bitcoin DVOL
The trend in the BTC DVOL index over the last couple of years | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 32, 2025

As is apparent in the chart, the Bitcoin DVOL has been going down in the last few months. The index is currently at lows so extreme that only 2.6% of trading days have witnessed a lower value. The analytics firm explains:

Such levels often reflect market complacency and limited demand for hedging against large moves. While these conditions can persist, they leave the market exposed to sudden volatility spikes if a catalyst emerges, as past cycles have shown through sharp, disorderly price swings when risk is rapidly repriced.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $121,600, up 5% over the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin is hovering near the all-time high | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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