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Bitcoin Options Traders See $80,000 BTC By November End, US Election Outcome Irrelevant
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Bitcoin Options Traders See $80,000 BTC By November End, US Election Outcome Irrelevant

Ash Tiwari
Ash Tiwari
7 months ago
3 mins read
bitcoin

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According to crypto options traders, Bitcoin (BTC) is primed to break through its previous all-time high (ATH) regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November.

US Elections Results Not Consequential

As the US presidential elections inch closer, a slight change in tone can be observed among crypto options traders regarding its implications on the digital asset market.

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Notably, options traders are increasingly betting big on $80,000 BTC by the end of November, regardless of whether Republican candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the election.

Commenting, David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, a crypto brokerage firm, said:

I believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome. Our analysis shows that options activity surrounding the upcoming elections exhibits a notable topside-heavy bias.

Within crypto circles, the general belief is that a Trump win would likely benefit the digital asset ecosystem. At the same time, a Harris victory would likely continue the Biden administration’s perceived hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies.

However, Harris has attempted to shift this perception among crypto voters, as she recently promised to foster emerging technologies like AI and digital assets through a supportive regulatory framework.

Besides the US elections, other factors, such as interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and cooling inflation, can be attributed to increased optimism toward a new ATH for Bitcoin by the end of the year.

To recollect, Bitcoin hit its current ATH value of $73,797 in March 2024, largely buoyed by the anticipated demand for the digital asset following the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

However, BTC dropped to $53,956 in September due to rising interest rates, before the Fed announced a rate cut. Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, trading just above $66,000.

Bitcoin Put To Call Ratio Trending Lower

According to data compiled by Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by reported trading volume, the put-to-call ratio is trending lower toward the end of the year. 

Essentially, a lower put-to-call ratio means that more traders are buying call options than put options, indicating a strong belief that BTC will likely surge in the coming days.

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Yev Feldman, co-founder at SwapGlobal, an institutional-grade crypto options trading platform, notes:

We see traders buy calls near 68k and puts near 66k, in other words, many continuously position and reposition for a breakout for either end. There is limited reason to collapse downwards after the election, so up makes more sense.

Additionally, for BTC call options expiring on November 29, open interest is largely concentrated around $80,000, with $70,000 being the second most favored strike price. For call options expiring on December 27, strike prices are between $80,000 and $100,000.

Recent reports suggest that retail interest in BTC has been on a gradual upward trajectory, indicating that the market is in risk-on mode after being range-bound for the majority of the year. Lawant concluded:

This indicates that investors are leveraging the options market more as a tool for capturing potential upside rather than as a hedge against downside risks.

Concerns about a potential downside persist due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and lingering doubts about Bitcoin’s halving earlier this year. BTC trades at $66,696 at press time, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

bitcoin
BTC trades at $66,696 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
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Ash Tiwari
Ash Tiwari

Ash Tiwari

Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.

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Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.

In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.

A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.

When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.

Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.

Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.

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