Bitcoin market activity over the past day has been marked by turbulence, with its value falling to as low as $90,000 levels earlier today before rebounding to just above $94,000.
Despite this partial recovery, the cryptocurrency remains down 5.8% over the past week and more than 13% below its all-time high of $109,000, reached in January.
This recent price movement has led a CryptoQuant analyst to suggest that Bitcoin may be transitioning into a distribution cycle, a phase where price gains start to slow as supply shifts toward newer market participants.
Bitcoin Transitioning From Accumulation to Distribution
The analyst known as Oinonen, discussed the current state of Bitcoin’s market cycle in a recent post titled “Entering the Distribution Cycle.” Oinonen noted that after gaining 129.2% over the past year and surpassing $100,000, Bitcoin might be nearing a “cycle top.”
He cited comments from Ki Young Ju, who suggested that the market is in the “early distribution phase” and could potentially see a few more quarters of growth, influenced by retail investors entering the market and broader promotional efforts.
Applying Dow Theory to Bitcoin’s recent market patterns, Oinonen explained that the cryptocurrency’s market movements can be divided into accumulation and distribution phases.
He pointed out that while 2022 represented a clear distribution cycle, Bitcoin transitioned into an accumulation cycle in 2023, which extended through 2024.
Now, as 2025 unfolds, Bitcoin appears to be shifting back into a distribution phase. Despite this shift, Oinonen emphasized that the market still has the potential for further price discovery, citing relatively low funding rates and a lack of overleveraged conditions.
Price Supports and Future Outlook
Oinonen also cited Axel Adler Jr, another market observer, who shared similar sentiments, noting that Bitcoin’s current market environment is not overheated and retains the potential for additional growth under stable macroeconomic conditions.
This view is supported by the ongoing institutional demand reflected in MicroStrategy’s recent Bitcoin purchases. The company has continued its pro-cyclical acquisition strategy, adding 10,107 bitcoins in early 2025 and bringing its total holdings to 471,107 BTC.
This sustained institutional interest serves as a leading indicator of market confidence and highlights Bitcoin’s continued appeal as a long-term investment.
Oinonen mentioned that as Bitcoin hovers near its “fair price” support level of $87,990—identified by its power-law fit—further developments should be watched out for. The analyst added:
Despite the approaching distribution cycle, Bitcoin might still reach significantly higher spot price levels. Bitcoin’s funding rate is relatively low and comparable to summer 2024 levels. We’re far from an overleveraged market, and the structure supports further spot price discovery.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView