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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow
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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Distribution: Mirroring Fall 2024 Cycle

Sebastian Villafuerte
Sebastian Villafuerte
2 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Distribution: Mirroring Fall 2024 Cycle

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Bitcoin trades at a critical level, holding steady above $118,000 but failing to gain momentum for a breakout. Price action has continued to tighten over the past several days, and analysts now anticipate a major move once either key supply zones are absorbed or demand breaks below. The market sits on edge, waiting for confirmation of the next trend.

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Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level

Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level

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Fresh data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable shift in long-term holder (LTH) behavior. At $118K, LTH supply began to decline, signaling the start of a distribution phase. These holders, known for accumulating during downtrends and selling into strength, are now gradually offloading their positions. This transition often marks the later stages of a bullish trend and echoes patterns from previous macro cycles.

As Bitcoin struggles to break past resistance and LTHs reduce exposure, pressure continues to build. A clean breakout above the current range could reignite momentum and drive BTC to new highs, while a break below support may trigger a sharper correction. Either way, the current standoff won’t last much longer. The coming days could bring the decisive move that sets the tone for Bitcoin’s next major leg.

LTH Distribution Begins As Bitcoin Mirrors Fall 2024 Pattern

Top analyst Axel Adler has highlighted a key development in Bitcoin’s current structure. According to Adler, LTH supply has declined by 52,000 BTC so far, marking a significant shift in behavior. These holders, typically seen as the market’s most patient participants, are now beginning to reduce their exposure—just as Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation range.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder 30-day Net Position Change | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder 30-day Net Position Change | Source: Axel Adler on X

This shift from accumulation to distribution closely mirrors the LTH behavior seen during fall 2024, when Bitcoin climbed from $65,000 to $100,000. In that period, long-term investors steadily sold into strength as the market pushed higher, locking in profits as late-stage momentum kicked in. Adler suggests that if the current trend continues, the distribution phase will intensify with each price leg up—just as it did in previous macro cycles.

The timing of this transition is critical. Bitcoin continues to hover just below all-time highs, while altcoins have begun to show signs of increased volatility. As Ethereum and other major assets begin to move more aggressively, capital rotation may accelerate. Whether this benefits or pressures Bitcoin remains to be seen.

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BTC Holds Steady As Tight Range Continues

Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077, with the 4-hour chart showing price currently hovering around $118,817. After bouncing from the lower boundary last week, BTC has managed to recover and now trades above the 50 SMA ($118,175), 100 SMA ($118,228), and well above the 200 SMA ($113,777). These moving averages have flattened, reflecting the ongoing equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

BTC faces tight consolidation | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC faces tight consolidation | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Despite several tests of the $118K zone, BTC continues to respect the key support levels, showing resilience as selling pressure remains muted. Volume, however, remains low—suggesting that traders are still in wait-and-see mode, looking for a decisive breakout before committing to larger positions.

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The upper resistance at $122K remains untouched since mid-July, and each approach has been met with rejection. A clean break above this level with volume confirmation would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend and could trigger a move toward new all-time highs. On the downside, a break below $115K would invalidate the current structure and likely lead to increased volatility.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte
Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies.

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To share his insights with others, Sebastian became an active contributor to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn. His focus on fintech and crypto-related topics quickly established him as a trusted voice in the online crypto community. Sebastian's goal was to educate and inform his audience about the latest trends and insights in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology.

Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K reports, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance.

Sebastian's journey as a crypto pioneer has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable contributor to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and helping to shape the future of this revolutionary technology.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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