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Bitcoin In Red, Analyst Predicts A 40% Drop To $48,000 Before Recovery
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin In Red, Analyst Predicts A 40% Drop To $48,000 Before Recovery

Dalmas Ngetich
Dalmas Ngetich
11 months ago
2 mins read
Is Bitcoin's Rally Over?

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Bitcoin is roughly 20% from all-time highs, and risks are trending lower, breaking from the current consolidation. After peaking in mid-March, bulls are yet to build enough momentum and overcome the roadblock at $72,000.

Will Bitcoin Fall To $50,000 Or Worse? Analyst Thinks So

While there were temporary gains in early June, the retracement in the last few trading days has seen BTC recoil, falling below $60,000 this week. Even though some traders are hopeful, one analyst took to X, saying holders should brace for more losses in the coming days.  

Bitcoin LTH behavior | Source: @AxelAdlerJr via X
Bitcoin LTH behavior | Source: @AxelAdlerJr via X

Citing the spending actions of long-term holders (LTHs) in previous cycles, the analyst said there is a high probability that their habits could see BTC drop by 40% from all-time highs.

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Interestingly, data shows LTHs began selling at around $45,000. This level can act as a support region, anchoring a leg up that may see BTC finally break $72,000 and all-time highs.

The analyst added that the current formation mirrored the discouraging decline in 2019. Then, BTC fell sharply before pushing higher, triggering a bull run.  

As of late June, Bitcoin has been roughly 20% of spot rates. If the analyst is correct, the coin could drop below May 2024 lows and as low as $48,000, breaking the round and psychological number at $50,000.

Bitcoin price trending downward on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView
Bitcoin price trending downward on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Looking at the structure of the Bitcoin candlestick formation in the daily chart, the zone between $56,500 and $60,000 is supported. If sellers of June 24 flow back, pushing prices lower, there is a high probability of BTC slipping even lower. Technically, the drop will be a bearish breakout formation, a move that could catalyze even more losses.

Traders Are Bullish Despite Increased Outflows From Spot BTC ETFs

Despite the bearish assessment, there are contrasting activities, especially when looking at the behavior of traders on Binance. One analyst shared data revealing that over 72% of all accounts with open BTC positions are long.

Binance traders bullish on BTC | Source: @ali_charts via X
Binance traders bullish on BTC | Source: @ali_charts via X

This resilience in the face of recent drops and the willingness to hold on despite dips is a massive boost of sentiment. It comes when the BTC market expects payment from Mt. Gox to heap more pressure on prices. After roughly ten years, hack victims will be receiving their compensation.

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Can Terra Classic Rise From The Ashes? Analyst Foresees 1,500% Price Increase

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Persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) worsen the situation. Lookonchain data on June 25 shows that all spot BTC ETF issuers in the United States decreased by 2,145 BTC. Of this, Fidelity decreased by 612 BTC.

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
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Dalmas Ngetich
Dalmas Ngetich

Dalmas Ngetich

Dalmas, a seasoned crypto reporter, brings a unique perspective to the industry. His specialization in NFTs, blockchain, DeFi, and blockchain news for NewsBTC, combined with a background in mechanical engineering and over a decade of experience in journalism, has allowed him to craft over 10,000 news and feature articles over the past eight years. His diverse range of topics, including technology, Forex, and finance, reflects his comprehensive understanding of the crypto landscape.

Read more

His technical expertise and analytical skills have been recognized and featured by leading news outlets such as Investing.com, CoinTelegraph, Entrepreneur, Forbes, and other authority sites. Notably, he broke key news, including the Ripple and MoneyGram partnership, cementing his position as a thought leader in crypto.
The news exploded. Over 100,000 people devoured this meticulously crafted report, from seasoned investors to curious newcomers. His analysis wasn't just dry facts and figures; it crackled with insight, dissecting the implications of the partnership and its potential impact on the future of finance.

His deep understanding of the financial markets, technological advancements, and blockchain developments has made him a respected voice in the industry.

Dalmas is also the founder of BTC-Pulse, a crypto news site, further demonstrating his commitment to the field. He firmly believes that DeFi and NFTs are here to stay and will continue to drive financial inclusion.

Coming from Nairobi, Kenya, it is easy to see the source of his inspiration: Across Africa, millions lack access to traditional banks. Remote villages, limited documentation, and high minimum balances create insurmountable barriers.

DeFi, not just Maker or Aave, for example, but think of Bitcoin and USDT, cuts out the middleman. Forget banks with their limitations.
Even so, DeFi isn't a magic solution. The continent still struggles with reliable internet access, and educational campaigns highlighting the benefits of this wonderful solution are insufficient. Moreover, even for those interested, understanding DeFi can look like learning a new language.

Dalmas is here to help make the tech easy to understand and digestible, even for beginners.
The story of DeFi in Africa is still being written. Challenges abound, but the promise of a more inclusive financial future is a powerful motivator. With innovation and collaboration, Dalmas firmly believes that DeFi could become the key to unlocking Africa's full economic potential.
This possibility and its immense value motivate Dalmas to continue breaking key DeFi innovations and more across the globe. His engineering background further enhances his ability to deliver well-thought-out pieces that blend technical insight with clear, impactful reporting.

Beyond his professional achievements, Dalmas is deeply passionate about technology and politics. Policies drive adoption, and being at the forefront and keeping up with how they evolve is crucial for the sphere to mature.

When Dalmas is not closely monitoring the latest crypto events, he can be found in nature, exploring the picturesque countryside, and traveling with his family and friends. His love for adventure and discovery perfectly complements his investigative and reporting skills.
You can connect with Dalmas on X: @Dalmas_Ngetich, or contact him on Telegram @Dalmas_Ngetich.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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