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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market
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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution

Sebastian Villafuerte
Sebastian Villafuerte
3 days ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution

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Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight consolidation range that began over two weeks ago, fueling expectations of an imminent breakout or breakdown. The lack of decisive movement has created a state of market indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. Price continues to hover between key support and resistance levels, showing no strong signs of accumulation or distribution.

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According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that reflects the overall temperature of the market—currently sits at a neutral level. This indicates that market conditions are balanced, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. Profit-taking remains moderate, ETF inflows have slowed, and long-term holder activity is stable, all of which support the view that the market is in a wait-and-see mode.

The current structure suggests that a major move is likely approaching. With volatility compressed and the market treading water, traders and investors are closely watching for a signal that will define the next leg. Whether Bitcoin breaks out toward new highs or rolls over into a correction, the coming days will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend and broader sentiment across the crypto landscape.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Neutral Market

Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insights into the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that condenses several key market indicators into a single scalar value, offering a simplified yet powerful view of where Bitcoin stands in its broader macro cycle. The metric combines data points such as overvaluation assessments, profit-taking activity, long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure, and ETF inflows to gauge whether the market is overheated or entering a favorable accumulation zone.

When the Heat Macro Phase reaches high values near 50%, it typically signals that these components are at their upper historical bounds—suggesting an overheated market that may be nearing a distribution phase or a correction. Conversely, readings closer to 30% reflect cooler market conditions: lower profit-taking, modest ETF activity, and minimal LTH selling. These scenarios often indicate that the market is undervalued and ripe for accumulation.

Currently, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase sits at 44%, putting it squarely in the neutral zone. Adler explains that this level reflects a balanced market environment—neither overbought nor undervalued. There’s no clear dominance by bulls or bears. Profit-taking is beginning to accelerate, but it hasn’t reached a level that would suggest a broader exit is underway.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase | Source: Axel Adler on X

This mid-range reading aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price action, which has remained in a tight consolidation for over two weeks. As the metric hovers in neutral territory, it reinforces the idea that the next significant move—whether upward toward new highs or downward in a correction—will depend entirely on upcoming price behavior. For now, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase acts as a market barometer, signaling patience as investors wait for the next breakout or breakdown to confirm direction.

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Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level

Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level

5 days ago

BTC Price Action Details: Tight Consolidation

Bitcoin continues to consolidate between well-defined support and resistance levels, currently trading at $118,269.81 on the 12-hour chart. The price action has remained confined within a horizontal range, with upper resistance at $122,077 and strong support at $115,724. This range has persisted for over two weeks, reflecting a phase of indecision where neither bulls nor bears have asserted dominance.

BTC faces ongoing consolidation | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC faces ongoing consolidation | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs—located at $116,342, $111,334, and $106,668, respectively—are all trending upward, suggesting that the broader structure remains bullish. BTC is currently trading above all key moving averages, which are acting as dynamic support. However, volume has decreased significantly, indicating a lack of conviction from both sides of the market.

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The tightening structure suggests that a breakout is approaching. If buyers manage to push BTC above $122K with strong volume, the next leg higher toward new all-time highs could follow. On the other hand, a breakdown below $115K would invalidate the current setup and open the door to a deeper correction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte
Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies.

Read more

To share his insights with others, Sebastian became an active contributor to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn. His focus on fintech and crypto-related topics quickly established him as a trusted voice in the online crypto community. Sebastian's goal was to educate and inform his audience about the latest trends and insights in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology.

Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K reports, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance.

Sebastian's journey as a crypto pioneer has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable contributor to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and helping to shape the future of this revolutionary technology.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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