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Bitcoin Not Reached 'Extreme Euphoria' Phase Yet, Glassnode Reveals
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Not Reached ‘Extreme Euphoria’ Phase Yet, Glassnode Reveals

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
4 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed the level Bitcoin would have to rise to if it has to reach the historical top zone in this pricing model.

Bitcoin Hasn’t Surpassed Last MVRV Pricing Band Yet

In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the extreme euphoria threshold of the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands. The MVRV Pricing Bands is a pricing model for the cryptocurrency that’s based on the MVRV Ratio.

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The “MVRV Ratio” is a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of how the value held by the Bitcoin investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put in (the realized cap). When the metric is greater than 1, the investors are holding more value than their initial investment, meaning that they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the market as a whole is underwater.

Historically, the holders being in too much profit has often signaled overheated conditions for Bitcoin, due to the fact that mass selloffs with the motive of profit-taking become probable in such conditions. Similarly, the dominance of loss has led to bottoms, as there aren’t many sellers left during these periods.

The MVRV Pricing Bands aim to capture this relationship. It defines certain price levels for the cryptocurrency that correspond to important levels in the MVRV Ratio.

Here is the chart for the model shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in these Bitcoin pricing bands over the last several years:

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands
Looks like BTC is currently under the final two bands of this model | Source: Glassnode on X

From the graph, it’s visible that the 0.8 pricing band, which is where the MVRV Ratio assumes a value equal to 0.8, has been around where bear market bottoms have formed for the asset. Right now, BTC is far above this level, situated at $33,100. The coin’s price is also at a significant distance from the 1.0 level of $41,300, which corresponds to the cost basis of the average address or investor on the network.

The pricing bands that BTC is currently trading under are the 2.4 and 3.2 levels, located at $99,300 and $132,400, respectively. The former of these has historically served as a signal that the bull market is getting heated.

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BTC can stay inside this zone for a while, but once the market cap surpasses the 3.2 level, it becomes very likely that some type of top is going to be hit soon.

The chart below illustrates just how rare it is for the asset to trade in the region above 3.2:

Bitcoin MVRV
The number of days spent above and below the various pricing bands of the model | Source: Glassnode on X

“BTC price has historically spent only ~5% of trading days above the 3.2 MVRV level,” notes the analytics firm. “This highlights how rare such peaks are and reinforces why it’s often considered an “extreme euphoria” zone.”

So far, Bitcoin hasn’t been able to surpass this line in the current cycle. If the past bull markets are anything to go by, the top would only occur above this level, which would imply more room still left for the asset to run in the current cycle. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the pattern would actually hold this time or not.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $93,400, down more than 3% over the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin appears to have been following a bearish trajectory | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Reason to trust

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