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Bitcoin ETFs Are "Important, But Not The Drivers," On-Chain Analyst Argues
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin ETFs Are “Important, But Not The Drivers,” On-Chain Analyst Argues

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
9 months ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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An on-chain analyst has explained why the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although important, may be something other than the drivers in the market.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Compared With Other Capital Flows On The Network

In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate has discussed how the different capital flows in and out of Bitcoin stack up against each other. The first netflow of interest is naturally the total capital netflow itself.

This netflow is calculated using the Realized Cap indicator. The Realized Cap is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates the asset’s total valuation by assuming that the “real” price of any coin in circulation was the price at which it was last moved on the network.

The last transaction of any token was likely the last time it changed hands, so the price at its time would make up for its current cost basis. As the Realized Cap essentially sums up the cost basis of every coin in circulation, it tells us about the amount of capital the investors have used to purchase the cryptocurrency.

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Therefore, the changes in this metric would reflect the incoming or outgoing capital from the sector. Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the monthly version of this netflow has looked like for Bitcoin during the past year.

Bitcoin Netflow
Looks like the value of the metric has been positive for a while now | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X

As the graph shows, the change in the Bitcoin Realized Cap has been positive for almost this period, suggesting that a net amount of fresh capital has only been flowing into the asset. Currently, BTC is observing net inflows worth $12 billion per month.

Checkmate has also attached the data for the flows related to the spot ETFs in the same chart. The green curve represents the monthly change for the ETFs excluding GBTC, while the red one corresponds to the GBTC outflows.

The former stands at a positive $3.7 billion per month, while the latter is at a negative $0.93 billion per month. The capital flows related to these financial instruments don’t make up for anywhere near most of the market. “At best, the ETFs are 20% of the influence,” notes the analyst. “They are important, but not the driver.”

The final metric in the chart is related to the supply change of the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), who are the investors holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.

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It would appear that these HODLers had been selling earlier in the year. Still, recently, their supply change has again flipped into positive territory, with their combined balance now growing at a rate of $1.6 billion per month.

BTC Price

In a sharp move up, Bitcoin has recovered beyond the $61,300 mark during the past day.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the asset has shot up over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Reason to trust

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