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Bitcoin Could End Up Plummeting To $80,100 If This Support Fails
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Could End Up Plummeting To $80,100 If This Support Fails

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
3 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows Bitcoin is currently retesting an important support level. Here’s where the next important line lies, should this level fail.

Bitcoin Is Currently Trading Around 1-Year MVRV Mean

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about a Bitcoin pricing model that’s based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score.

The MVRV Z-Score is an indicator that basically compares the market cap of BTC with its realized cap. The metric differs from the popular MVRV Ratio in that it also applies a standard deviation test to pull out the extremes from the data.

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More formally, the indicator is calculated as,

the ratio between the difference of market cap and realized cap, and the standard deviation of market cap, i.e. (market cap – realized cap) / std(market cap)

The “realized cap” here refers to a capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates the asset’s total valuation by assuming that the ‘true’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last moved on the blockchain.

The last transaction of any token can be assumed to be the last price at which it changed hands, so the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. Thus, the realized cap is a sum of the cost basis of all coins on the network.

In this context, the MVRV Z-Score essentially tells us about how the value held by the investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the capital that they initially put in (the realized cap).

Now, here is the chart for the Bitcoin Pricing Bands model based on this metric shared by the analytics firm in the report:

Bitcoin MVRV Extreme Deviation
Looks like the price of the coin is retesting the mean level of the model | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 6, 2025

As displayed in the above graph, the model consists of three lines related to the standard deviations (SDs) of the 1-year MVRV Z-Score. The lines being the metric’s mean, +1 SD, and -1 SD.

At present, the middle pricing band of the model is situated around $96,300. This is the same level that BTC has been falling back to as support during the recent market downturn.

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As the report explains,

At the moment, price has found strong support near the Mean level. Should prices break lower, the -1σ may mark a key threshold for the bulls next major line of defensive support. Conversely, the +1σ level may act as resistance, as investors come into a meaningful amount of unrealized paper profit, and may seek to realize them into market strength.

The -1 SD support level stands at $80,100 right now, while the +1 SD resistance line is at $118,000. It now remains to be seen which of these this retest of the mean level would lead Bitcoin to.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $97,400, down more than 2% over the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The BTC price appears to have witnessed a surge during the past day | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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