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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow
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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Bitcoin Calm Won’t Last—This Week Holds Breakout Risk

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
3 months ago
4 mins read
Bitcoin price news

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Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital opened its Monday note with a blunt assessment: “Implied vols continue to come under pressure, with BTC stuck in a tight range as summer approaches.” In the options house’s telling, the market is drifting into the northern-hemisphere holiday season much as it did a year ago, when one-month at-the-money (ATM) volatility collapsed from 80 vols in March to barely 40 vols by July and spot repeatedly “failed to decisively breach the $70k level.” The difference this year is the new, higher plateau: BTC has sat between $100,000 and $110,000 for most of the past three weeks.

The calm is visible beyond Deribit’s options screens. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility, is hovering just above 40—one of its lowest prints in more than two years. Realised volatility is even quieter, so even one-year lows on implieds still look “optically rich,” QCP argues. That valuation gap has encouraged traders to sell gamma: perpetual open interest has slipped and the favourite hedge-fund basis trade—long spot via the new ETFs, short futures—has unwound, taking what QCP calls “the natural bid for vol” out of the market.

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Flows in the listed options market confirm the malaise. Dealers report that July upside strikes around $130,000 and $140,000 are being rolled out to September “in meaningful size,” effectively pushing bullish timelines further down the curve. Meanwhile, Deribit’s put-skew has flattened as short-dated hedges expire worthless—a dynamic that often precedes a directional move once macro catalysts arrive.

This Week Could Break Bitcoin’s Lull

Those catalysts line up uncomfortably close. On Wednesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish May consumer-price data. April’s headline CPI rose a modest 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, while core prices advanced 0.2% on the month and 2.8% on the year.

Economists look for headline CPI to quicken to 0.3% on the month and 2.5% year-on-year, with core CPI seen edging up to 0.3% and 2.9% respectively. Producer prices follow on Thursday: April’s PPI fell 0.5% on the month yet still printed 2.4% year-on-year. The consensus expects May PPI to rebound 0.2%, leaving the annual rate near 2.4%.

Inflation is not the only macro variable in play. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report—139,000 jobs versus a 130,000 consensus—rekindled dollar strength and knocked gold more than one percent lower, but BTC “remained conspicuously unmoved,” QCP noted. The same divergence is visible this morning: US equity futures are slightly softer, spot gold is bid on safe-haven demand, and bitcoin is trading virtually unchanged.

Geopolitics may supply the spark that inflation data has so far failed to ignite. Senior US and Chinese officials meet in London today (Monday) in what both sides are calling a push for a limited trade deal that would dial back export-control threats and myriad retaliatory tariffs.

The talks matter for crypto because tariffs have been feeding directly into the CPI basket and—via global risk sentiment—into bitcoin demand. “A clean break below $100k or above $110k would likely reawaken broader market interest,” QCP wrote, “but we currently see no obvious near-term catalyst to drive such a move.” Trade headlines could change that calculus in a single newsflash.

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Institutional positioning likewise hints at fatigue. US regulatory filings show that large hedge funds trimmed spot-ETF holdings in the first quarter as the lucrative cash-and-carry spread compressed. Net inflows across the 11 US bitcoin ETFs have slowed to a trickle since late May, leaving cumulative additions at roughly $44 billion—unchanged for almost a fortnight, according to Farside data.

For now, the market’s centre of gravity is exactly where QCP says it is: inside the $100,000–$110,000 corridor. Volatility sellers continue to collect premium, and the risk-reward for momentum traders remains poor. Yet with CPI, PPI and high-stakes trade negotiations all landing inside a 72-hour window, the premium that option writers are harvesting could quickly look meagre.

If the inflation data surprise to the upside, a repricing of Fed-cut expectations could turn last week’s equity rally into a risk-off wobble, yanking bitcoin below six figures for the first time since April. Conversely, a benign print combined with even a symbolic easing of tariff rhetoric could flip the narrative to “soft landing, structural bid via ETFs,” reigniting topside optionality into the June quarter-end. In that scenario the rolled-out September $140,000 calls might come alive far sooner than their buyers now expect.

Either way, the clock on bitcoin’s summer doldrums is ticking loudly. “Without a compelling narrative to spark the next leg higher, signs of fatigue are emerging,” QCP warns. The narrative candidates arrive this week; whether they supply ignition or simply more noise will decide whether 2025’s range trade breaks—or cements itself as the dominant theme of another crypto summer.

At press time, BTC traded at $107,919.

Bitcoin price
BTC price rises above the 0.618 Fib, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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