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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow
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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Bitcoin Flashes Rare Buy Signal Not Seen Since $49,000 And $74,000 Bottoms

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
2 weeks ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin price news

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Bitcoin flashed a short-term “buy” signal that previously marked the $49,000 and $74,000 swing lows, according to on-chain analyst Frank (@FrankAFetter), a quant at Vibe Capital Management. “Officially got the Oversold print on the short-term holder MVRV bollinger bands,” he wrote on X, pointing to prior occurrences during the “Yen Carry Unwind” around $49,000 and the “Tariff Tantrum” near $74,000, adding a third instance “Today – $108k.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollingers
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollingers | Source: X @FrankAFetter

The metric in focus blends the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH-MVRV) ratio with Bollinger Bands to capture when newer coins trade at statistically depressed valuations versus their cost basis. In the chart Frank shared, the STH-MVRV Bollinger oscillator probed the oversold threshold that previously aligned with local exhaustion of selling.

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On a companion panel, the STH-SOPR gauge—spent-output profit ratio for coins younger than roughly 155 days—remains below 1.0, signaling that recent buyers are realizing losses into the tape rather than profits. “Short-term holders (top buyers) are in pain & realizing losses,” Frank noted, emphasizing that “STH-SOPR is not high!”

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR | Source: X @FrankAFetter

Positioning has also turned cleaner in derivatives. “Longs got ‘delevered’ every day last week—that’s seven straight days of magic blue dots,” he said, describing persistent long liquidations and balance-sheet shrinkage among leveraged bulls. He is now “watching for the flip: when they give up and start shorting with leverage (exactly at the wrong time), providing fuel for a potential relief squeeze.”

Bitcoin Long Liquidation Dominance
Bitcoin Long Liquidation Dominance | Source: X @FrankAFetter

Macro context may be additive, in his view. “Gold hit new highs last week. ‘Gold leads, bitcoin follows.’ The yellow metal often looks around corners, and it might be sniffing out the debasement trade headed into 2026 as the administration stokes the economy for mid-terms,” he wrote, suggesting a potential catch-up dynamic if Bitcoin lags the move in bullion.

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Risk markers remain clearly defined. Frank pegs the short-term holder realized price—an aggregate cost basis for recent coins—at $108,800. “If BTC breaks down below the short-term holder cost basis of $108.8k, it may want to investigate demand at the 200-day moving average, which sits at $101k.”

That layered support map frames the oversold print as a tactical signal inside a still-intact longer-term uptrend, but it also acknowledges that violations of STH cost basis can extend tests toward the cycle’s primary trend gauge.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis | Source: X @FrankAFetter

Taken together, the confluence of these signals presents a strong confluence, according to Frank. Whether history rhymes again will hinge on spot demand emerging above short-term cost basis and on whether any shift toward aggressive shorting provides the fuel for a squeeze. As Frank summarized, “If we are in a bull market—and I believe we are—this is the kind of behavior that typically sets the stage for the next leg higher.”

At press time, BTC traded at $111,382.

Bitcoin price
BTC reclaims the EMA100, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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