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Breaking News: Tether Faces Downgrade By S&P Global Amid Concerns Over Disclosure And Assets Holdings

Bitcoin Breaks $119,000: Analyst Says $139,000 Could Be Next

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: October 3, 2025 2:00 am
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could target $139,000 next, according to this on-chain pricing bands model.

Bitcoin Has Broken Past 0.5 SD MVRV Deviation Band

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where Bitcoin may be heading next based on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. This pricing model is based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, an indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin against its realized cap.

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The former represents the value currently held by the BTC investors, while the latter is a measure of the value that they initially put in. As such, the MVRV Ratio basically represents the profit-loss balance of the overall network.

When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the market cap is greater than the realized cap and the average investor is sitting on an unrealized gain. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the investors as a whole may be considered underwater.

The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands takes the mean of the MVRV Ratio and calculates standard deviations (SDs) from it. It then determines price levels that correspond to these standard deviations. Below is the chart for this Bitcoin pricing model shared by the analyst.

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands
How the MVRV pricing bands have changed over the course of this cycle | Source: @ali_charts on X

As is visible in the graph, the mean of the MVRV Ratio is currently situated at $94,650 in the model. What this means is that if Bitcoin declines to this level, the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to its mean.

During BTC’s recent decline, its price slipped below the +0.5 SD level of $116,700. With the latest recovery run, however, it has smashed past it. The next level on the model is the +1 SD, located at $138,800.

Bitcoin has surged above this band twice in the current cycle so far, with a top following for the cryptocurrency shortly after each break. The explanation behind the trend could lie in the fact that investors become more likely to participate in profit-taking selloffs the higher their gains get.

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The MVRV Ratio being 1 SD above its mean corresponds to holder gains being notably higher than the norm. As such, it’s not surprising to see that BTC topped out shortly after crossing the threshold during both of the 2024 breakouts.

It now remains to be seen whether this latest surge above the +0.5 SD level will lead Bitcoin to another retest of the +1 SD band, or if the run will fizzle out before it can happen.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery run of almost 7% over the last week that has taken its price to the $119,200 level.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has been marching up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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