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Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market Now? Here's What On-Chain Data Suggests
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market Now? Here’s What On-Chain Data Suggests

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
10 months ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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Bitcoin has gone through a major crash recently, but has the asset yet breached the historical bear market boundary? Here’s what on-chain data says.

Bitcoin Is Currently Under Realized Price Of New Whales

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed what the Realized Price of different key groups in the Bitcoin market is looking like right now.

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The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition price that the investors of a given group currently share.

When the asset’s spot price is above this metric, it means the cohort as a whole can be considered to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator suggests the average group member is holding a net loss.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for some major cohorts on the Bitcoin network:

Bitcoin Realized Price
Looks like the asset had been above all of these levels before the crash | Source: @ki_young_ju on X

The first Bitcoin cohort listed here is the “New Whales,” which include the large investors (more than 1,000 BTC in holdings) who bought their coins within the past 155 days. The likes of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other custody wallets would be included in this category.

This group currently has a Realized Price of $65,000, meaning that these whales would be in notable losses after the latest cryptocurrency crash.

The next group, the Binance Traders, has a cost basis of $55,000, around where the asset’s spot price is trading. Thus, these investors would currently be just breaking even on their investments.

Bitcoin still holds a distance above the Realized Price of the third group, the Miner Whales, at $45,000. As the CryptoQuant founder has pointed out, BTC dipping below this level has historically confirmed a bear market for the coin.

From the chart, it’s visible that the asset last saw major breaches of the level back in November 2018 and May 2022. It also saw a temporary break during the COVID crash in March 2020.

Related Reading

Crypto Liquidations Cross $1 Billion As Bitcoin Crashes To $51,000

10 months ago

As the latest crash has been unable to take Bitcoin below this cost basis of the mining companies, it’s possible that a transition towards a bear market hasn’t happened yet.

The last cohort in the chart is the Long-Term Holder Whales, which includes the whales that have been holding for more than 155 days. The Realized Price of this group has never been breached in the coin’s entire history and currently trades around $22,000.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has gone up 7% to reclaim the $55,000 mark.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin seems to have gone through a significant drawdown recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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