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How Close Is Bitcoin To A Bear Market? This Historical Level May Contain Hints
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

How Close Is Bitcoin To A Bear Market? This Historical Level May Contain Hints

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
4 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here’s how far the asset’s price is currently from this line.

Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Major Cohorts Right Now

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed where the Realized Price currently stands for some of the important Bitcoin investor groups.

The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor on the BTC network. When the spot price is above this metric, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of profit, while it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss.

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Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Young Ju, which shows the trend in its value for four Bitcoin cohorts:

Bitcoin Realized Price
The price of the coin appears to be trading above these levels at the moment | Source: @ki_young_ju on X

As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin is above the Realized Price of all of these groups right now, so their members would all be sitting on some unrealized gains.

Historically, the average cost basis of these cohorts has held some significance for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s apparent that the price has generally followed a bullish trajectory whenever it has been above the Realized Price of the New Whales (colored in orange).

The New Whales, also called the Short-Term Holder Whales, refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC. The Realized Price currently stands at $89,300 for this cohort, which means BTC could be at risk of retesting it in the near future if the bearish trajectory continues.

A potential dip under the level, though, wouldn’t immediately signal a shift towards a bear market; it would only imply a lack of momentum behind Bitcoin. The level that BTC may have to avoid falling under in order to avoid a bearish regime is the Miner Whales (green).

The Miner Whales refer to the wallets of mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant founder has explained that BTC’s plunges under the mark during the last couple of cycles have all led to bear markets.

At present, the Realized Price of the Miner Whales is situated at $58,000. From the current price, Bitcoin would have to go through a drawdown of almost 40% in order to approach a retest of this line. If the level will indeed once again act as a boundary for the bear market in this cycle, then BTC may be considered at a safe distance for now.

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Glassnode Reveals Where Bitcoin Could Find Support If Current Level Breaks Down

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While the asset tends to see breaks both above and below the cost basis of three of the cohorts over the course of a cycle, it has never broken under the Realized Price of the fourth group, the Old Whales or Long-Term Holder Whales.

These whales, who have been resolutely holding Bitcoin since more than 155 days ago, have their average acquisition level at around $26,000 right now.

BTC Price

Bitcoin witnessed a plunge under the $94,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the coin has already found a rebound as its price is now back at $96,200.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has overall moved sideways during the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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