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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow
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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

Bitcoin Trades At 40% Discount As ‘Triple Put’ Unfolds: Hedge Fund Founder

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
5 months ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin Price News

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Bitcoin is changing hands at prices almost 40% below its modeled “energy value,” yet an unusual confluence of technical, fundamental and policy signals suggests the market may be turning, according to Charles Edwards, founder of the quantitative crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments. In his latest newsletter, Edwards argues that a newly-formed “Triple Put”—simultaneous backstops from the White House, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury—has altered the risk profile for all risk assets just as on-chain and macro indicators for Bitcoin flip decisively higher.

Bitcoin Flips Bullish

Edwards begins with sentiment, describing it as “in the pits.” The American Association of Individual Investors’ bull–bear spread, he notes, is “as bearish as 2009 and the 2022 lows, and significantly worse than the 2020 Covid crash,” even though both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have fallen less than fifteen percent from their recent peaks.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index has registered its bleakest reading “in years,” while Capriole’s own Active Manager Sentiment gauge shows equity managers at near-record under-exposure. “Simply put, investors are panicking today,” he writes, warning that such extreme readings “typically coincide at the mid-late stage of a major price bottom.” The combination leaves what Edwards calls “blood (and fear) on the street,” echoing the Rothschild maxim he cites in full: “the time to buy is ‘when there’s blood on the streets, even if the blood is your own.’”

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Technically, Bitcoin staged a sharp reversal just days ago. A breakout candle to $94,000 reclaimed the entire $91,000–$100,000 range that had capped the market since February. Edwards classifies the move as a “significant range reclaim,” adding that “for Bitcoin, such bullish range reclaims rarely see price look back.”

Bitcoin technical analysis
Bitcoin technical analysis | Source: Capriole

Unless the market delivers “a daily close under $91K,” he writes, “it’s hard to get a technical chart more bullish than this.” The breakout coincides with his firm’s machine-learning fundamentals model, the Bitcoin Macro Index, turning positive after months in neutral territory. The index blends more than seventy on-chain, macro-economic and equity-market variables; price is deliberately excluded to avoid feedback effects. Last week the model “reset to ‘fair value’ and then resumed a bullish trend,” a shift Edwards calls “a very promising fundamental data reading.”

The ‘Triple Put’

Policy developments provide the third leg of the story. On April 2—the so-called “Liberation Day”—the United States imposed sweeping global tariffs, only to halve them and add a 90-day pause once equities sold off by roughly fifteen percent, the VIX jumped above 30, and credit spreads widened.

Edwards describes the rapid reversal as the inaugural “Trump Put,” evidence that “if markets decline too much, Trump will step in, enact policy and backstop them.” One day earlier, on April 1, the Federal Reserve began slashing the pace of quantitative tightening by 95% (the “Fed Put”), effectively ending a four-year balance-sheet contraction; derivatives traders on the CME FedWatch tool now assign the base-case to three rate cuts before year-end.

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Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that the swoon in Treasuries was driven by deleveraging rather than foreign selling and that the department “had tools to mitigate the situation, including scaling up buybacks if necessary” (“Treasury Put”).

Edwards concludes that “we now have three major financial market puts in place, all ready to backstop financial markets. Together the US President, Federal Reserve and US Treasury represent the Triple Put,” a volatility backstop unprecedented in its breadth.

Is BTC Undervalued?

Capriole’s own “Chart of the Week” underscores the valuation argument. The Bitcoin Energy Value—an in-house metric that prices the network using aggregate miner electricity consumption—surged above $130,000 for the first time this month.

With the spot market trading near $94,000, Bitcoin therefore sits at an “almost 40% discount to fair value,” a depth of undervaluation that Edwards calls “quite rare” in the first year after a halving and “a very welcome sight.” Historically, the energy value has acted as a gravitational pull on price; gaps of this size have narrowed in every prior cycle.

Capriole’s Bitcoin Energy Value
Capriole’s Bitcoin Energy Value | Source: X @caprioleio

Edwards tempers the bullish picture with caveats. “Political and volatility risk remain, and new policy changes are the greatest risk to derailing markets at present,” he writes, adding that Capriole will watch for Bitcoin to defend $91,000 on a weekly close and for the Macro Index to remain in expansion.

Yet his overall tone is unmistakably optimistic: “As it sits today, the outlook for Bitcoin is very bullish with confluence across technicals, fundamentals and sentiment,” he concludes. If the week ends above current levels, Edwards “suspect[s] we will be pushing new all-time highs on Bitcoin quite soon.”

At press time, BTC traded at $93,723.

Bitcoin price
BTC consolidates above key support, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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