Reason to trust
How Our News is Made
Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Ad discliamer
Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.
Arthur Hayes believes the long arc of US policy now points toward money creation on a scale that could push Bitcoin into “multi-million” territory—and, in a more extreme scenario, as high as $15 million per coin. In a wide-ranging interview hosted by CoinFund’s Chris Perkins, the BitMEX co-founder and noted macro commentator tied the path of Bitcoin explicitly to a looming political and institutional showdown at the Federal Reserve, arguing that Jerome Powell can delay—but not ultimately prevent—the return of aggressive stimulus under a Trump administration.
Bitcoin To $15 Million Possible Under Trump?
From Jackson Hole, where markets are braced for Powell’s remarks, Hayes framed the near-term setup as a test of the Fed chair’s pride and independence in the face of overt political pressure. “Supposedly Powell is this Volcker 2.0… Do I think there’s a high probability that Powell sticks it out and just says f*** you to Trump and doesn’t cut just because he’s a human and human beings don’t like to be put in these sort of situations? Yes,” Hayes said.
He added that while “ultimately the Fed will cut at some point,” the chair may refuse to signal imminent easing now precisely to demonstrate autonomy: “What a better way to prove that you are an independent monetary actor than to say no, I’m sticking with my guns.”
That posture, however, only postpones what Hayes sees as the inevitable: an overtly inflationary policy mix once Powell is replaced or overruled. “Trump and Scott Bessent have laid out exactly what they want to do. Run it hot, inflationary,” he said, using the interview to expand a thesis he plans to publish next week on how Washington could weaponize stablecoins to finance the state while marginalizing the Fed’s control over front-end rates. In a line that doubles as both meme and policy critique, Hayes previewed his framing: “I changed the meme… it’s going to say it gets, you know, it puts the dollars on its skin or it gets the sanctions again.”
Hayes contends the policy lever is straightforward: pull trillions sitting in the offshore eurodollar system into on-chain dollar stablecoins by withdrawing de facto guarantees for non-US bank branches and by deputizing US big-tech platforms to distribute yield-bearing dollar accounts globally—backed by Treasury bills. He estimates the total addressable pool at $10–13 trillion from eurodollars alone, with additional “foreign retail deposits” across emerging markets.
Once that capital sits in stablecoins, he argues, the Treasury can place bills “at whatever price [it] wants, unconstrained by what Powell or whoever his successor does,” effectively neutering Fed funds while creating a “sink of tens of trillions of dollars” to finance deficits. The geopolitical enforcement mechanism, in his telling, is blunt: deny access to US financial rails—or sanction foreign elites—if local regulators resist.
The market impact, he says, is unambiguously bullish for crypto. With on-chain dollars paying a modest yield, users can frictionlessly move into basis-trade tokens, spend with crypto cash cards, and post stablecoins as collateral across DeFi. “TVL… should go into the tens of trillions pretty quickly if… US monetary authorities follow through on this national policy of pro-stablecoin and let’s shove dollars to all these places in the world.”
Against that backdrop, Hayes places Bitcoin at the apex of the risk spectrum. He calls it “the best performing asset in human history since it launched in 2009,” and rejects the idea that latecomers have missed the move: “I wouldn’t say that just because you’re coming in at 2025 and Bitcoin’s at 120,000 or whatever it is that you’ve missed the boat. We still have a long way to go.”
Pressed on price, Hayes links the $15 million figure to a particular personnel outcome at the Fed: “If that guy [Zervos] gets in, you know, Bitcoin will be at like 15 million because he’s just going to do yield curve control, you know, printing money, immediate 300 basis point cuts.”
While not a base case, the scenario illustrates his conviction that the political economy points to structurally looser policy—and structurally higher Bitcoin. In the immediate term, Hayes remains fully invested and is prepared to buy weakness around Jackson Hole. “If… Powell… doesn’t talk about cuts at all and market tanks 15–20%, I’ve got some extra cash and I’ll be going shopping.”
At press time, BTC traded at $113,569.
