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Despite Bitcoin’s historic rise above the $100,000 mark in early 2025, a growing number of crypto investors are left wondering when the long-anticipated altcoin season will begin. At the time of writing, the altcoin season index from BlockchainCenter has now dipped to a reading of 20, far below the 75 threshold typically required to confirm the start of an altcoin season. In a detailed post on social media platform X, van de Poppe addressed what is one of the most frequently asked questions in the crypto industry today: “When altseason?”
Altcoin Season Missing Despite Bull Market Conditions
According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, this cycle has deviated significantly from historical patterns. His response to the growing question of an altcoin season relays the fact that while Bitcoin has made gains, the altcoin market continues to lag significantly behind, raising doubts about whether a true altseason will even arrive this cycle.
In past cycles, altcoins followed Bitcoin’s rally within weeks or months. However, 2024 and the early part of 2025 have proven to be different. This, in turn, has been many investors expecting this cycle to play out the same getting hammered and losing their patience. Although some new meme coins had their brief moments of explosive growth in late 2024, the broader altcoin market has been largely suppressed since late 2021.
Van de Poppe explains that most older altcoins failed to match Bitcoin’s performance in 2021, and that trend has only worsened in the current cycle. This has somewhat changed the expectation of a typical four-year cycle rhythm. The tables have turned and other variables need to be taken into account for investors looking to get a significant return in those markets.
Bitcoin Dominance And Sentiment Imbalance Holding Altcoins Back
One of the clearest reasons for the delay in altseason is Bitcoin’s overwhelming dominance. As the Altcoin Season Index indicates, the metric remains significantly below the 25 threshold line and firmly entrenched in Bitcoin Season territory. Van de Poppe attributes this not just to price action, but also to macro-level shifts, such as interest rate regimes and monetary policy from central banks. For now, there’s still much upside potential for Bitcoin, especially if the Fed interest rates were to go down from their current 4% levels.
In his view, the current market is divided into two camps: those expecting a bear market and those who believe the bull run is just beginning. Both could be wrong, he warns, because the game has changed. If there are so many factors going into negative sentiment, that’s actually a sign to allocate funds into altcoins.
Keeping this in mind, the best time to invest in altcoins would be now, when the altcoin season isn’t showing any signs. Van de Poppe concludes that altseason isn’t just a timeframe but a phase where patient investors accumulate undervalued cryptocurrencies before the rest of the market catches on.
When the altcoin season eventually rolls in, it will come unannounced.
