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Bitcoin Bear Market Back Or Slight Correction?
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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Bear Market Back Or Slight Correction? Here’s What’s Going On

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
2 years ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC

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Yesterday’s news that one of the largest US exchanges Kraken will have to pay a $30 million fine to the US Securities and Exchange Commission and shut down its crypto-staking product for US customers has caused a lot of uncertainty, including in the Bitcoin market.

In recent days, it has become increasingly apparent that U.S. authorities are pursuing a strict agenda against crypto companies in the wake of the FTX collapse. In particular, the US authorities’ efforts are targeting the banking sector, which provides the on- and off-ramp for exchanges, and stablecoins.

Therefore, even though crypto-staking has nothing to do with Bitcoin at first glance, there is concern that centralized exchanges in the U.S. are facing major challenges that may also affect the Bitcoin market.

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In this respect, it is not surprising that the Bitcoin price has lost support at $22,370. The support level had been tested five times since January 23. Yesterday’s news could not be absorbed by the Bitcoin bulls.

For the moment, BTC reached a low of $21,633, where the next region of support can be found at $21,600 to $21,500. If the support also breaks, the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) could provide the most important support, which is currently at $21,383.

Bitcoin price BTC USD
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Bears Or Bulls Taking Over?

The good news is that the daily RSI is completely set back to neutral with 47, after it topped in mid-January at 87.  On the other hand, the spot orderbook of the largest spot exchange, Binance, is also displaying a strong support between $21,400 and $21,600 as buy walls have formed in this range.

$BTC Binance spot orderbook.

Look at those buy walls at 21.4k – 21.6k, will be watching them closely. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/UCK97jeI2U

— exitpump (@exitpumpBTC) February 9, 2023

As long as the area above the 200-day EMA is defended by the bulls, the current price trend can be dismissed as a healthy correction. The uptrend remains intact.

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Half Of All Bitcoin Unmoved In 2 Years: What Does This Mean For The BTC Price?

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However, if BTC falls below the 200-day EMA, this could be seen as a failed attempt by the Bitcoin bulls to establish a trend change. In addition, it can be interpreted as bearish for Bitcoin because the price (presumably) fails to establish a new high for the moment in the weekly chart.

Analyst Rekt Capital shared the following 1-week chart of BTC and states:

BTC performs yet another fake-breakout by failing to retest the ~$23,400 level as support. In the process, BTC has formed a new Lower High resistance.

Bitcoin price weekly chart
Bitcoin weekly chart | Source: Twitter @rektcapital

Meanwhile, from an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin momentum is shifting into positive territory. The adjusted output profit ratio (aSOPR) is breaking out and holding above 1.0, showing that the market has realized gains on the chain for the first time since April 2022, as explained by analyst James Straten.

Bitcoin aSOPR
Bitcoin aSOPR | Source: Twitter @jimmyvs24

This is also confirmed by the realized P/L ratio on the gains. The market is now realizing a greater proportion of gains in USD than losses. Sellers with an unrealized loss are exhausted and generally adjust to a healthier inflow of demand.

Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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